Ten races at Parx today on a fast track, and if yesterday gave us a clue, speed deserves plenty of attention again today.

Speed held well throughout Monday’s card, but today’s deep fields mean simply identifying the fast horses isn’t enough.

When the margins are this tight, having an edge could be the difference between finding the winner and settling for an almost.

Terry and Rich will use Smart Sheets to dig deeper into: SIM Speed and last-race speed figures Early, Mid, Late and Total Pace % Chance to Lead and projected first-call leaders C-Zone and PAR SIM Odds versus the Morning Line Improvement patterns Horses positioned to take advantage if speed continues to hold Potential overlays hiding in the deeper fields

We’ll also be watching the early races closely.

If yesterday’s speed advantage carries over, we want to recognize it before the rest of the betting public adjusts.

Ten races.

Deep fields.

Fast track.

The winners are in there. Let’s use Smart Sheets to find the edge.

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Race 1 – Female

6 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed

Terry’s Picks

5 – Tap and a Hug: Finishing in the money in the last 4 races, winning 1 race, running 2nd in the last race; Bullet 4F workout (Sep-08); Strong trainer and jockey stats.

3 – Miskita: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 50% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.

6 – Doppio Espresso: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when taking a horse Down 2+ classes; Strong jockey stats.

Longshot:

7 – Miss Tifeye: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer.

Alternates:

4 – Saint Grace

9 – California Smoke

Rich’s Picks

6 – DOPPIO ESPRESSO – +6 SIM SP# and takes a sizeable drop – NYRA invader

3 – MISKITA – on the pace with a TLRSP# +6 – big pop – regression coming?

4 – SAINT GRACE – most late speed and standout C ZONE

5 – TAP AND A HUG – Top TOTAL PACE and SIM FAV but Penn Shipper

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 5: 6/6,7/1/2,7,8/4,5,7,10,12

Terry vs. Rich

Terry puts #5 Tap and a Hug on top, while Rich prefers #6 Doppio Espresso.

Doppio Espresso gets support from both sides. Terry points to the class drop, the trainer’s 26% success rate when dropping horses two or more classes and the strong jockey statistics. Rich moves the horse to the top with a +6 SIM Speed advantage and emphasizes the sizeable class drop from the NYRA circuit.

#3 Miskita may offer the strongest middle ground. Terry ranks her second after hitting the board in every Parx appearance while winning half of those starts. Rich also ranks her second and expects her to be involved in the pace with a TLRSP# +6.

Rich does raise one question: was the latest speed-figure jump too large, making regression possible?

Terry’s top horse, #5 Tap and a Hug, is still interesting on the Smart Sheets. Rich has her fourth but notes that she is the SIM Favorite with Top Total Pace. His concern is the Penn-to-Parx move.

The horse Rich adds to the main group is Terry’s alternate #4 Saint Grace, who owns the most Late Speed and standout C-Zone.

Race 2 – Female

6 1/2 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed

Terry’s Picks

7 – Bulma: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

6 – Punch and Judy: Finished in the money in 4 out of the last 5 races; Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.

2 – Inner Excellence: Ran 2nd in last race; improve while returning to a sprint; Can handle the distance.

Longshot:

5 – Majestic Twirl: Drops in class today; trainer wins 17% of the races when taking a horse from Maiden to Maiden-Claiming races; Can improve while returning to a sprint.

Alternates:

9 – Show Em Up

4 – Sweetbitters

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$.50 Pick 4: 6,7/1,3,6/1,2,7/4,7,10,12 – Cost $36.00

Rich’s Picks

7 – BULMA – YES horse – on the Pace – +8 SIM SP# and TLRSP# +8 – Paco

6 – PUNCH AND JUDY – the other YES horse – biggest Dropper and Standout C ZONE

9 – SHOW EM UP – only her third race – same move forward in 3rd race is a contender

1 – CANDY KANE – improving – better Mid Late pace – drops a little

Terry vs. Rich

This is one of the strongest agreement races on the early card.

Both Terry and Rich put #7 Bulma on top.

Terry has the highest last-race speed rating along with strong trainer and jockey statistics.

Rich’s Smart Sheets case is even stronger:

YES horse

On the pace

+8 SIM Speed

TLRSP# +8

Paco aboard

If Monday’s speed-friendly track carries into Tuesday, that pace positioning becomes particularly important.

Both handicappers also agree on #6 Punch and Judy in second. Terry points to four in-the-money finishes from the last five starts, the class drop and fastest Best Dirt Speed. Rich identifies Punch and Judy as the other YES horse, biggest dropper and standout C-Zone.

That gives us a particularly strong 7/6 combination.

Terry’s alternate #9 Show Em Up is Rich’s third choice. With only two races behind her, Rich believes another forward move in the third career start would put her squarely into contention.

Race 2 Main Pair

#7 Bulma

#6 Punch and Judy

This may be one of the strongest Terry-Rich combinations in the first half of today’s card.

Race 3 – Female

5 1/2 Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail and 8+

Terry’s Picks

6 – Ginster: Drops in class today; high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races when taking a horse from Maiden to Maiden-Claiming races; Strong jockey stats.

3 – Fooled Ya: First time starter whose Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; trainer wins 19% in Dirt starts; Has a high % winning jockey.

1 – South Street Sally: Rail post is winning at 25% clip; 4th as favorite last out; high % winning trainer wins 26% with beaten favorites; high-% winning jockey.

Longshot:

2 – She’s Got Moxie: First time starter; has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

5 – Miss Novie

Rich’s Picks

1 – SOUTH STREET SALLY – on the pace in 3rd race bounce back

3 – FOOLED YA – 1ster with a back bullet

6 – GINSTER – MSW dropper and another that could boom in third start – Paco

2 – SHE’S GOT MOXIE – Top Rated 1ster and only the 1 is a Maybe

Terry vs. Rich

Terry and Rich use the same four horses, but the order is considerably different.

Terry puts #6 Ginster on top. The class drop from Maiden Special Weight company is important, and Terry also likes the trainer angle and strong jockey statistics.

Rich ranks Ginster third but sees the same potential, calling her an MSW dropper who could boom in her third start, with Paco aboard.

Rich instead gives the top spot to #1 South Street Sally.

Terry has South Street Sally third and notes the favorable rail, beaten-favorite trainer angle and strong jockey. Rich believes the horse can be on the pace and bounce back in the third career race.

That becomes especially interesting if Tuesday’s track continues rewarding early position.

The first-time starters add uncertainty.

Terry ranks #3 Fooled Ya second because the breeding suits the sprint distance. Rich also has Fooled Ya second and notes a back bullet.

Terry’s Longshot #2 She’s Got Moxie is Rich’s Top Rated first-time starter.

That makes She’s Got Moxie a particularly interesting horse if the betting public allows the price to drift.

Race 4 – Female

6 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed

Terry’s Picks

2 – Bright Kohana: Second against similar last out; top speed figure at today’s distance; tied for fastest dirt speed; high-percentage trainer and jockey.

1 – Cocoa’s Vivian: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 24% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.

7 – She’s a Gem: Drops in class today; Early speed running style helps chances; Has a high % winning trainer.

Longshot:

6 – Mended We Stand: Drops in class today; Can go the distance.

Alternates:

10 – True Sunshine

4 – Clout Chaser

Rich’s Picks

2 – BRIGHT KOHANA – TLRSP# +6 – could be better in 2nd up and switches to Sanchez

7 – SHE’S A GEM – should be forward – better EP/FRACTIONS – better in 2nd up

8 – MOLLEWANTACRACKER – longshot – YES – drops – some EP, cuts back in 3rd up

1 – COCOA’S VIVIAN – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE – PAR+ but last race – bad

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$3 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,6,7,8

Terry vs. Rich

Another strong agreement at the top:

Terry #1: #2 Bright Kohana

Rich #1: #2 Bright Kohana

Terry points to a runner-up finish against similar competition, the top speed figure at today’s distance, tied-fastest Dirt Speed and a strong trainer-jockey combination.

Rich adds TLRSP# +6, the possibility of another move forward in the second start and the switch to Sanchez.

That combination makes Bright Kohana one of the stronger consensus win candidates on today’s card.

#7 She’s a Gem also gets substantial support. Terry ranks her third based on the class drop and early-speed running style. Rich moves her to second because she should be forward and owns better Early Pace/Fractions, with another potential improvement in the second start.

The Smart Sheets wildcard is #8 Mollewantacracker.

Rich calls her a longshot YES horse who drops, has some Early Pace and cuts back in distance in the third start.

Terry doesn’t have Mollewantacracker among his six listed horses, making this a true Rich-only value opinion.

Meanwhile, Terry’s second choice #1 Cocoa’s Vivian is Rich’s fourth. The numbers are strong — SIM Favorite, Top Total Pace and PAR+ — but Rich doesn’t like the most recent race.

Race 4 Key Horse

#2 Bright Kohana

When Terry and Rich independently arrive at the same top horse and the supporting speed numbers point in the same direction, that’s exactly the type of agreement we’re looking for.

Strongest Terry-Rich Agreements – Races 1–4

Race 1 – #6 Doppio Espresso

Terry’s third choice and Rich’s #1. Significant class drop with a +6 SIM Speed advantage.

Race 2 – #7 Bulma

Terry #1 and Rich #1. YES horse, +8 SIM Speed, TLRSP# +8 and expected to be on the pace.

Race 2 – #6 Punch and Judy

Terry #2 and Rich #2. Other YES horse, biggest dropper, fastest Best Dirt Speed and standout C-Zone.

Race 4 – #2 Bright Kohana

Terry #1 and Rich #1. TLRSP# +6, top distance speed figure and tied for fastest Dirt Speed.

Early Card Horses to Watch

If yesterday’s speed advantage remains in play, three horses deserve particularly close attention:

Race 2 – #7 Bulma

Race 3 – #1 South Street Sally

Race 4 – #2 Bright Kohana

The strongest pure Terry-Rich consensus horses through Race 4 are #7 Bulma in Race 2 and #2 Bright Kohana in Race 4.

Race 5

6 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed

Terry’s Picks

10 – Onishenko: Won last race at PARX Racing; Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

12 – King Barou: Drops in class today; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – Marchin Into April: Finished 3rd last race; Has a high % winning trainer.

Longshot:

4 – Dirty Cash: Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance is a plus; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternates:

5 – We Miss Neil

9 – Basin Bay

Rich’s Picks

12 – KING BAROU – most upside – SIM FAV – Top PAR+ and 3rd up

5 – WE MISS NEIL – YES horse – could be forward as Standout C ZONE

4 – DIRTY CASH – biggest dropper and if he takes charge early bye-bye

7 – MARCHIN INTO APRIL – biggest in race edge +11 LS and Top TOTAL PACE +5

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 4,5,7,12

Terry vs. Rich

This is a deep race where Terry and Rich disagree on the winner but still identify several of the same contenders.

Terry puts #10 Onishenko on top after winning the last race at Parx and posting the highest last-race speed rating. Strong trainer and jockey statistics provide additional support.

Rich, however, does not include Onishenko among his top four.

Instead, Rich puts Terry’s second choice #12 King Barou on top.

King Barou has several significant Smart Sheets advantages:

Most upside

SIM Favorite

Top PAR+

Third start

Terry also notes the class drop, highest speed figure at today’s distance and strong trainer-jockey combination.

That makes #12 King Barou the strongest Terry-Rich agreement in the race.

The potential price horse is #4 Dirty Cash.

Terry makes Dirty Cash his Longshot because the early-speed running style should benefit from the shorter distance.

Rich moves Dirty Cash up to third and calls him the biggest dropper, adding a simple but important observation:

If he takes charge early — bye-bye.

If the speed-friendly Parx track continues, that is exactly the kind of horse we want to identify before the betting public fully adjusts.

Another interesting horse is Terry’s alternate #5 We Miss Neil. Rich ranks him second as a YES horse with a standout C-Zone who could be forward.

#7 Marchin Into April rounds out Rich’s four and is Terry’s third choice. Rich gives him the biggest in-race Late Speed edge at +11 and Top Total Pace +5.

Race 5 Horses to Watch

#12 King Barou – strongest overall agreement

#4 Dirty Cash – potential speed/value play

#5 We Miss Neil – YES horse with standout C-Zone

Race 6

1 Mile – Early Speed – Rail Best, 8+

Terry’s Picks

3 – Vino Dominus: Won last race at PARX Racing; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

6 – Docsgotallthecandy: Early speed running style helps chances; Best Dirt Speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.

5 – Tall Cotton: Finished in the money in 2 out of the last 3 races, winning 1 race; high-% trainer; Likes distance.

Longshot:

7 – Evasive Moves: Ran 2nd in last race; Strong jockey stats.

Alternate:

2 – Backtrack

Terry’s Suggested Wager

$20.00 Win: #3 Vino Dominus

$5.00 Exacta Box: 3/6

$5.00 Exacta: 3/5,6,7

Cost: $45.00

Rich’s Picks

6 – DOCSGOTALLTHECANDY – Lone Dropper – SIM SP# +7 and Top TOTAL PACE +14

3 – VINO DOMINUS – upped SP# in the last 3 – Z Pattern

2 – BACKTRACK – most upside – on the pace longshot YES horse

5 – TALL COTTON – if he is going to win – this is the distance 2/4 and 0/6 at any other

Terry vs. Rich

This is Terry’s strongest opinion of the afternoon.

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day – #3 Vino Dominus

Terry puts #3 Vino Dominus on top after the horse won the last race at Parx, and he likes the strong trainer-jockey combination.

The Smart Sheets provide another important reason to believe the horse is moving in the right direction.

Rich notes that Vino Dominus has:

Improved his Speed Figure in each of the last three races

Z Pattern

That improving speed pattern makes Terry’s Best Bet especially interesting.

Rich ranks Vino Dominus second, however, because #6 Docsgotallthecandy owns some extremely strong numbers.

Rich identifies #6 as:

Lone Dropper

SIM Speed +7

Top Total Pace +14

Terry also respects Docsgotallthecandy and ranks him second.

That creates a very clear 3/6 main pair.

If the speed bias from Monday continues, Docsgotallthecandy’s early-running style and substantial Total Pace advantage deserve particular attention.

Terry is still willing to side with Vino Dominus, whose improving speed figures suggest a horse moving forward rather than backward.

The Smart Sheets Value Horse

#2 Backtrack is only an alternate for Terry, but Rich ranks him third and calls him:

Most upside

On the pace

Longshot YES horse

That combination makes Backtrack a horse worth watching closely if the odds provide value.

#5 Tall Cotton is another horse both Terry and Rich include. Terry ranks him third, while Rich emphasizes that the mile appears to be his preferred distance:

2-for-4 at the distance

0-for-6 at all other distances

That is a significant distance-specific angle.

Race 6 Main Pair

#3 Vino Dominus – Terry’s Best Bet

#6 Docsgotallthecandy – Rich’s top selection

This is another race where Terry and Rich agree on the two main horses but reverse their order.

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day

Race 6 – #3 Vino Dominus

Terry’s strongest play at Parx Racing today is #3 Vino Dominus.

Vino Dominus comes into the race after winning his last start at Parx and has the support of a strong trainer-jockey combination.

The improving Speed Figure pattern adds another reason for optimism.

Rich points out that Vino Dominus has increased his Speed Figure in each of the last three races and also identifies a Z Pattern.

That is exactly what we want to see from a horse Terry is putting on top — evidence that current form may still be moving in the right direction.

Rich prefers #6 Docsgotallthecandy, but Terry has that horse second, making 3 and 6 the clear consensus pair.

Terry isn’t just picking Vino Dominus.

He’s betting him.

Best Bet Wagers

$20 Win – #3 Vino Dominus

$5 Exacta Box – 3/6

$5 Exacta – 3/5,6,7

Total Cost: $45

Race 6 – #3 Vino Dominus is Terry’s Best Bet of the Day at Parx Racing.

Race 7

6 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed

Terry’s Picks

8 – Dot’s Dollar: Class drop; top distance and dirt speed; strong trainer (36% on 2+ class drops) and jockey.

6 – Amusing Mischief: Finished in the money in the last 5 races, winning the last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

5 – Action Hero: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 44% of the races, winning 15% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 67% of the races, winning 17% of the starts.

Longshot:

2 – Sophia’s Prince: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 46% of the races, winning 21% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 42% of the races, winning 17% of the starts.

Alternate:

1 – Chip’s Friend

Terry’s Suggested Wagers

$.50 Pick 4: 6,8/3,4/1,3,6,7/2,7,9,12 – Cost $32.00

$10.00 Win: #8 Dot’s Dollar

$5.00 Exacta Box: 6/8

Cost: $20.00

Rich’s Picks

8 – DOT’S DOLLAR – Lone E on the Lead – lone Class and NYRA dropper – Sanchez/Pino

6 – AMUSING MISCHIEF – super consistent – TLRSP# +8 – biggest LP +5 and Top TOTAL PACE

2 – SOPHIA’S PRINCE – YES horse – left arrow – maybe better in 2nd up

5 – ACTION HERO – YES horse – longshot – switches to Paco in 3rd up

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Pick 4: 2,5,6,8/3,6/1,7/4,6,7,12

Terry vs. Rich

Race 7 gives us one of the strongest agreements on the entire card.

Both Terry and Rich put #8 Dot’s Dollar on top.

Terry’s case is straightforward:

Class drop

Top distance speed

Top Dirt Speed

Trainer wins 36% when dropping two or more classes

Rich adds perhaps the most important angle if Monday’s track bias continues:

Lone E on the lead

Dot’s Dollar is also the lone class and NYRA dropper, with Sanchez and Pino.

If speed continues to hold and Dot’s Dollar is allowed to control the race, this horse could become very difficult to catch.

#6 Amusing Mischief

There is complete agreement here as well.

Terry ranks Amusing Mischief second after five consecutive in-the-money finishes, including a victory last time.

Rich also has the horse second with:

TLRSP# +8

Biggest Late Pace +5

Top Total Pace

That makes the 8/6 combination one of the strongest exacta pairings on today’s card.

Terry’s Longshot Gets Smart Sheets Support

Terry’s Longshot #2 Sophia’s Prince is Rich’s third choice.

Rich identifies Sophia’s Prince as a:

YES horse

Left Arrow

Potential second-up improver

That is significant because it gives Terry’s price horse independent support from the Smart Sheets.

#5 Action Hero is third for Terry and fourth for Rich. Rich also identifies Action Hero as a YES horse and longshot, with the switch to Paco in the third start.

Race 7 Main Pair

#8 Dot’s Dollar

#6 Amusing Mischief

Value Horses

#2 Sophia’s Prince

#5 Action Hero

This is a race where Terry and Rich are almost completely aligned.

Strongest Terry-Rich Plays – Races 5–7

Race 5 – #12 King Barou

Terry #2 and Rich #1. SIM Favorite, Top PAR+, most upside, class drop and third-up improvement potential.

Race 5 – #4 Dirty Cash

Terry’s Longshot and Rich #3. Biggest dropper with enough early speed to become dangerous if the speed-friendly track continues.

Race 6 – #3 Vino Dominus

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day. Winner last time at Parx with three consecutive Speed Figure increases and a Z Pattern.

Race 6 – #6 Docsgotallthecandy

Terry #2 and Rich #1. Lone dropper, +7 SIM Speed and a massive Top Total Pace +14 advantage.

Race 7 – #8 Dot’s Dollar

Terry #1 and Rich #1. Lone E, lone class/NYRA dropper and strong speed figures.

Race 7 – #6 Amusing Mischief

Terry #2 and Rich #2. Super consistent with TLRSP# +8 and Top Total Pace.

Part 2 Best Opportunities

Best Bet: Race 6 – #3 Vino Dominus

Strongest Consensus Win Candidate: Race 7 – #8 Dot’s Dollar

Strongest Exacta Pair: Race 7 – #8 Dot’s Dollar / #6 Amusing Mischief

Smart Sheets Threat to the Best Bet: Race 6 – #6 Docsgotallthecandy

Potential Value: Race 6 – #2 Backtrack

Potential Longshot: Race 7 – #2 Sophia’s Prince

Race 8 – Female

1 Mile – Early Speed – Rail Best, 8+

Terry’s Picks

4 – Gingersayschill: Won last race at PARX Racing; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Dale: Finished in the money in 9 out of the last 10 races, winning 3 races; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

1 – Courageous Fergie: Won last race at PARX Racing; Rail post is winning at 25% clip; High % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

6 – American Select: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong jockey stats.

Alternates:

5 – Dadoo

2 – Gruene Hall

Rich’s Picks

6 – AMERICAN SELECT – could Pop in 2nd up – distance 4/1-2-1 but worst race at Parx

3 – DALE – on the lead with EP +5 edge and Top C ZONE – ITM 6/6 at Parx

4 – GINGERSAYSCHILL – Top TOTAL PACE +5 – Paco – been off a while and OK first up

1 – COURAGEOUS FERGIE – SIM FAV – distance 4/2-2-0 – hasn’t won a 1st up

Terry vs. Rich

Race 8 gives us one of the most interesting differences of opinion on the card.

Terry puts #4 Gingersayschill on top, while Rich takes Terry’s Longshot #6 American Select and moves her all the way to first.

Terry likes Gingersayschill off the last-out Parx victory, along with the highest speed figure at today’s distance and strong trainer-jockey statistics.

Rich ranks her third but adds another positive:

Top Total Pace +5

His concern is the time between races and whether she will deliver her best effort in this spot.

Rich sees more potential value in #6 American Select.

Terry already identifies American Select as his Longshot after finishing second against similar company and recording the fastest Best Dirt Speed in the field.

Rich believes the horse could pop in the second start, and the distance record is solid:

4 starts

1 win

2 seconds

1 third

That’s an in-the-money finish in all four starts at the distance.

The concern is that American Select’s worst race came at Parx.

#3 Dale – Strong Consensus Horse

The horse sitting between the two opinions may be #3 Dale.

Terry ranks Dale second after finishing in the money in nine of the last ten races with three victories.

Rich also ranks Dale second and adds:

Expected to be on the lead

Early Pace +5 edge

Top C-Zone

6-for-6 in the money at Parx

If Tuesday’s track continues favoring speed, Dale’s projected early position becomes particularly important.

#1 Courageous Fergie

Terry has Courageous Fergie third after a last-out Parx victory.

Rich ranks the horse fourth but notes that she is the SIM Favorite and is 4/2-2-0 at the distance.

The concern is the first-up record.

Race 8 Main Horses

#4 Gingersayschill – Terry’s #1

#6 American Select – Terry’s Longshot and Rich’s #1

#3 Dale – strong Terry/Rich consensus

#1 Courageous Fergie – SIM Favorite

Race 8 Value Horse

#6 American Select

Whenever Terry’s Longshot becomes Rich’s top Smart Sheets selection, the horse deserves extra attention at the betting windows.

Race 9

5 1/2 Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail and 8+

Terry’s Picks

1 – Nikki’s Charm: Front runner so the shorten distance will be a plus; Rail post is winning at 25% clip; high-% winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Tough Guy Tony: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance can help.

6 – Whisper Roar: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

7 – Fine Diamond: Beaten only 1-1/4 lengths vs tougher in last start; Drops in class today.

Alternate:

5 – Cajun Venom

Rich’s Picks

1 – NIKKI’S CHARM – only YES – TLRSP# +4 and tops almost all Smart Sheets Key Stats

7 – FINE DIAMOND – faster early fraction and better mid to late pace as lone dropper

6 – WHISPER ROAR – Penn Shipper – usually worrisome – but Tr/Jy combo hitting at 40%

3 – TOUGH GUY TONY – could be a lot better in 2nd up – Top PAR+

Terry vs. Rich

This may be the strongest top-pick agreement on the late card.

Both Terry and Rich put:

#1 Nikki’s Charm

on top.

Terry expects Nikki’s Charm to be forward from the start. The cutback in distance should suit the front-running style, and the inside post has been winning at a 25% clip.

Rich’s Smart Sheets provide even stronger confirmation.

Nikki’s Charm is:

The only YES horse

TLRSP# +4

At or near the top of almost every important Smart Sheets category

That is a powerful combination.

If the speed-friendly conditions from Monday remain in effect, Nikki’s Charm appears to have both the running style and the numbers to take advantage.

#7 Fine Diamond – Longshot Alert

Terry’s Longshot becomes Rich’s second choice.

That deserves attention.

Fine Diamond was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths against tougher competition last time and now drops in class.

Rich adds:

Faster Early Fraction

Better Mid-to-Late Pace

Lone Dropper

Terry labels the horse a Longshot, but Rich’s numbers suggest Fine Diamond may be much more than an underneath possibility.

#6 Whisper Roar

Terry ranks Whisper Roar third, and Rich also has the horse third.

The concern for Rich is the Penn-to-Parx move.

However, the trainer-jockey combination is reportedly hitting at 40%, which makes the horse difficult to dismiss.

#3 Tough Guy Tony

Terry ranks Tough Guy Tony second.

Rich has the horse fourth but sees the potential for a much better second-up effort and gives him Top PAR+.

Race 9 Main Horse

#1 Nikki’s Charm

Value/Longshot

#7 Fine Diamond

This race provides an attractive combination of a strong consensus favorite and a Terry Longshot receiving major Smart Sheets support.

Race 10

6 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed

Terry’s Picks

7 – J Cody: Won 2 races out of 6 starts at PARX Racing; has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

12 – Good News Rocket: Switches to a high % winning trainer; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.

5 – Z Storm Is Coming: Finished 3rd (on Turf) in last race; Should improve while returning to Dirt.

Longshot:

4 – Sittin Chilly: Strong jockey stats; Likes distance.

Alternate:

6 – Pastero

Rich’s Picks

7 – J CODY – only class dropper – ran way too fast early in last – distance 2/2

12 – GOOD NEWS ROCKET – on the pace with the most upside – been off a bit – 1st up?

6 – PASTERO – TLRSP# +10 – biggest in race edge +9 LS – but big SP# pop – regressing?

4 – SITTIN CHILLY – open race – grades out in many Smart Sheets cats and best jockey

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 4,6,7,12

Terry vs. Rich

Terry and Rich close the card with complete agreement on their top two horses.

Both put #7 J Cody first and #12 Good News Rocket second.

#7 J Cody

Terry points to a horse who has won two of six starts at Parx and comes into the race with a strong trainer-jockey combination.

Rich adds two particularly interesting angles:

Only class dropper

2-for-2 at today’s distance

Rich also believes J Cody went far too fast early in the last race.

If the horse can distribute that speed more efficiently today, the class drop and perfect distance record make J Cody a strong candidate to rebound.

#12 Good News Rocket

There is also complete agreement on Good News Rocket.

Terry likes the switch to a high-percentage trainer, the highest speed figure at today’s distance, and Best Dirt Speed that is close to the average winning figure.

Rich sees:

Expected pace presence

Most upside

The question is the time away and how Good News Rocket performs first up.

#6 Pastero – Smart Sheets Wildcard

Terry lists Pastero as an alternate.

Rich moves the horse into third.

The numbers are impressive:

TLRSP# +10

Biggest in-race Late Speed edge +9

But Rich raises the obvious concern.

That was a substantial Speed Figure improvement.

Can Pastero repeat it, or does regression follow?

This is the type of horse whose odds should help determine the betting decision.

#4 Sittin Chilly – Longshot Agreement

Terry’s Longshot also makes Rich’s top four.

Terry likes the jockey statistics and distance record.

Rich calls this an open race but notes that Sittin Chilly grades out well in numerous Smart Sheets categories and gets the best jockey.

That makes #4 particularly useful in the trifecta.

Race 10 Main Pair

#7 J Cody

#12 Good News Rocket

Value/Longshot

#4 Sittin Chilly

Upside/Wildcard

#6 Pastero

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day

Race 6 – #3 Vino Dominus

Terry’s Best Bet at Parx Racing remains:

#3 Vino Dominus

Vino Dominus won his last race at Parx and comes back with a strong trainer-jockey combination.

More importantly, Rich’s Smart Sheets show an encouraging progression:

Three consecutive Speed Figure increases

Z Pattern

Rich prefers #6 Docsgotallthecandy, but ranks Vino Dominus second, making 3 and 6 the clear Terry-Rich pair.

Terry is putting his opinion behind the selection with:

$20 Win – #3 Vino Dominus

$5 Exacta Box – 3/6

$5 Exacta – 3/5,6,7

Total Cost: $45

Race 6 – #3 Vino Dominus is Terry’s Best Bet of the Day at Parx Racing.

Terry & Rich – September 15 Final Board

Category	Horse	Race	Why
Terry’s Best Bet	#3 Vino Dominus	6	Last-out Parx winner with three consecutive Speed Figure increases and Z Pattern
Strong Consensus	#7 Bulma	2	Terry #1 and Rich #1; YES horse, +8 SIM Speed and TLRSP# +8
Strong Consensus	#2 Bright Kohana	4	Terry #1 and Rich #1; TLRSP# +6 and strong distance/dirt speed
Strong Consensus	#8 Dot’s Dollar	7	Terry #1 and Rich #1; Lone E and lone class/NYRA dropper
Strong Consensus	#1 Nikki’s Charm	9	Terry #1 and Rich #1; only YES horse and tops nearly all key Smart Sheets stats
Strong Consensus	#7 J Cody	10	Terry #1 and Rich #1; only class dropper and 2-for-2 at the distance
Value Play	#6 American Select	8	Terry Longshot and Rich #1; potential second-up improvement
Longshot Alert	#7 Fine Diamond	9	Terry Longshot and Rich #2; lone dropper with favorable pace numbers
Late Longshot	#4 Sittin Chilly	10	Terry Longshot and Rich #4; grades well across multiple Smart Sheets categories

Best Terry-Rich Consensus Plays

If we narrow the entire ten-race card strictly to horses both Terry and Rich put on top, we get a powerful short list:

Race 2 – #7 Bulma

Race 4 – #2 Bright Kohana

Race 7 – #8 Dot’s Dollar

Race 9 – #1 Nikki’s Charm

Race 10 – #7 J Cody

And Terry’s personal strongest play remains:

Race 6 – #3 Vino Dominus – Best Bet of the Day

Longshots Getting Extra Smart Sheets Support

One of the best ways to use Terry and Rich together is to find horses Terry identifies as Longshots that Rich’s Smart Sheets elevate significantly.

Three stand out today:

Race 8 – #6 American Select

Terry: Longshot

Rich: #1

Could pop second up, has the fastest Best Dirt Speed from Terry’s analysis and is 4/4 in the money at the distance.

Race 9 – #7 Fine Diamond

Terry: Longshot

Rich: #2

Drops from tougher company with better early fractions and better Mid-to-Late Pace.

Race 10 – #4 Sittin Chilly

Terry: Longshot

Rich: #4

Likes the distance, gets a strong jockey and grades well across multiple Smart Sheets categories.

These are three horses worth watching closely if the tote board gives us the right price.

Late Pick 4 – Race 7

Terry

$0.50 Pick 4:

6,8 / 3,4 / 1,3,6,7 / 2,7,9,12

Cost: $32.00

Rich

$0.50 Pick 4:

2,5,6,8 / 3,6 / 1,7 / 4,6,7,12

The biggest overlap between the two tickets comes in the key areas:

Race 7 – #6 Amusing Mischief / #8 Dot’s Dollar

Race 8 – #3 Dale

Race 9 – #1 Nikki’s Charm / #7 Fine Diamond

Race 10 – #7 J Cody / #12 Good News Rocket

Race 10 Trifecta

Rich’s Suggested Wager

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 4,6,7,12

That ticket combines:

#7 J Cody – Terry #1 / Rich #1

#12 Good News Rocket – Terry #2 / Rich #2

#6 Pastero – Smart Sheets upside

#4 Sittin Chilly – Terry’s Longshot

A four-horse $0.50 trifecta box contains 24 combinations.

Total Cost: $12.00

September 15 – Final Take

The biggest question entering Tuesday was whether Monday’s speed-friendly Parx track would continue to reward horses with favorable early position.

If it does, several horses are particularly well positioned:

Race 2 – #7 Bulma

Race 4 – #2 Bright Kohana

Race 5 – #4 Dirty Cash

Race 6 – #6 Docsgotallthecandy

Race 7 – #8 Dot’s Dollar

Race 8 – #3 Dale

Race 9 – #1 Nikki’s Charm

Race 10 – #7 J Cody

But Terry’s strongest personal opinion is in Race 6.

Best Bet of the Day – Race 6 – #3 Vino Dominus

Ten races. Deep fields. Fast track.

Speed mattered yesterday.

Today, the goal is to identify where speed, improving form and Smart Sheets advantages come together — and find the edge before the crowd does.