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The Rebel (Gr.2) is part of Oaklawn’s 4-part Kentucky Derby (Gr.1) prep series, starting with the Smarty Jones, to the Southwest (Gr.3), to the Rebel, to the Arkansas Derby (Gr.1) and historically the Rebel has been a productive race for the three-year-old scene. Winners like American Pharoah, Curlin, Smarty Jones etc. and more recently Nadal, Omaha Beach, Magnum Moon and others. This year’s edition of the Rebel is one I’m very excited for because my favorite three-year-old towards the Kentucky Derby to race so far this year is entered in the Rebel. There is only one three-year-old I like more than him and it’s Forte, who can be expected to race in the Fountain Of Youth coming up at Gulfstream Park.
Now, let’s get to the Rebel field.
Drawing the rail is Verifying, the son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify out of 3x stakes winner Diva Delite, making him a half-brother to the legendary 13x stakes winner and 5x Gr.1 winner Midnight Biosu, is the morning line favorite in this spot. He boasts a record of two wins and one second in four starts. A debut win at Saratoga on a day when I was present at the track, he impressed on Travers Day by half a length. He next took a big step up to the Champagne (Gr.1) which is a premier race for two-year-olds, historically one of the best two-year-old races all year, where he finished second in the slop to Blazing Sevens.
In doing so, he beat top tier two-year-old sprinter Gulfport, who won on debut by seven lengths and then won the Bashford Manor by a dozen lengths, from there he was second when going down to his knees on the far turn and still closing late, and then second in the Hopeful (Gr.1) which is another premier two-year-old race. Third in the Champagne was highly touted two-year-old sprinter Andiamo A Firenze, who won multiple stakes. Fourth, was the gray son of Justify, Champions Dream who most recently was well beaten in the Sam F. Davis (Gr.3) at Tampa, but before that was second by a head in the Pasco stakes.
After holding his own in the Champagne, Verifying went to the Breeders Cup Juvenile (Gr.1) where he finished a lackluster sixth place finish. Finishing middle of the pack in the $2,000,000 race, he went to the sidelines for a little while before returning in mid January to romp in an allowance by a little over five lengths at Oaklawn.
Since that race, the runner up, Gun Pilot, won impressively coming from behind as a speed horse to win an allowance. Off of that, Gun Pilot returns on saturday. Third, behind Verifying and Gun Pilot was Two Eagles River, who just came back to romp by four lengths to impressive and very promising two year old winner Disarm out of the Steve Asmussen barn who broke his maiden on a day I was present at the track as well, and Disarm is not a horse that is easily toyed with like that. Verifying comes out of the smoking hot Brad Cox barn, which just hit 2,000 wins a few days ago, and he will be ridden by Florent Geroux who also just last month hit 2,000 wins. This is no doubt the horse to beat and carries the momentum and potential as he sails into the Rebel, en route to, hopefully, a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Drawing post two is Steve Asmussen trainee, Powerful. This colt has the same record as Verifying, sporting two wins and a second place finish in four races, so, why is Verifying 2-1 and Powerful 20-1? Well, this son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of Antiquity, by Blue Grass (Gr.1) winner and Florida Derby (Gr.2) runner up, Pulpit, was second on debut at Saratoga, beaten a head to Bring Theband Home who has not raced since.
Next out, Powerful won in September at Saratoga who won by half a length over popular Tapit’s Conquest who recently ran well to finish just behind the topflight in the Risen Star. Despite being headed mid stretch, he fought back to win over a green Tapit’s Conquest. From there, he went to the Claiborne Breeders Futurity (Gr.1) which eventual two year old champion Forte would win. Powerful finished a non threatening eleventh of fourteen runners, he broke slow and never really got involved in the race. He cut back in distance to six and a half furlongs and won by a length in the Ed Brown stakes, beating some nice horses but no world-beaters.
The Rebel is going to be a good test for this horse for two reasons, first, contender or pretender? I’ll say pretender as far as the derby and rebel go but this will show the truth about him, as well as any distance limitations which could be the excuse for the Breeders Futurity. Watch this Steve Asmussen trainee to blast out of the gate with Isaac Castillo and press the pace early, let’s see if he folds late or he could just spring the upset with the heart he showed defeating Tapit’s Conquest at Saratoga.
In post three is my favorite three-year-old, right behind Forte. Red Route One is his name and the big son of Gun Runner, bred on an extremely successful cross being out of a Tapit mare. He is another Steve Asmussen trainee and this one will be ridden by Christian Torres, which I’m not sure if I love or hate.
The chestnut sports one win, one second and one third in six career starts and he’s been consistent and unlucky at the same time in his last few races. I think this is his breakthrough race. On debut, he finished fifth of seven runners on the inner turf at Saratoga on a day I was present for. The race was won by stakes winner Battle Of Normandy, the runner up was Alexis Zorba. Red Route One didn’t handle the turf and never fired, easing into fifth late. From there, Asmussen tried him on the turf again at Kentucky Downs and this time he did fire, winning by an easy four lengths, pressing the pace early from third he pounced and drew off easily.
Then, he was switched to dirt for the fourteen runner Breeders Futurity where previously mentioned Powerful finished eleventh, Red Route One blossomed and finished third, seven lengths behind champion Forte and nine length debut winner Loggins, who has not raced since the Breeders Futurity. In the Breeders Futurity, he out finished multiple graded stakes winner Instant Coffee, Recent Robert B. Lewi (Gr.3) winner Newgate, Lost Ark who is a half-brother to multiple Gr.1 winner Nest, third place finisher in the Risen Star (Gr.2) and Lecomte (Gr.3) as well as Street Sense (Gr.3) runaway winner out of this race by six lengths.
After getting beaten by two very good horses, and beating some very good horses behind him, he passed an opportunity on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to run in the previously mentioned Street Sense (Gr.3) which Two Phil’s won in a runaway performance, Red Route One never found his stride in the slop and finished an uninspiring fifth. From there, he went to the Kentucky Jockey Club where he was involved in that precarious stretch run with over half the field within two lengths in the final furlong, he got bumped around pretty good and stopped late, while Instant Coffee found clear sailing down the outside. Red Route One couldn’t find room until it was too late but didn’t quit and ran on for fourth.
Most recently, he finished second in the Southwest (Gr.3) in an effort that I think he was the best horse in the race, finishing second beaten by the very popular Arabian Knight by five lengths, at one point up the backstretch he was dead last and more than five lengths behind the nearest horse, on the far turn in about a furlong he went from that far back to fourth and running home quickest of all in the slop for second, he was two lengths ahead of Frosted Departure who in turn was two ahead of Sun Thunder, who just got second in the Risen Star. He comes into the race off a series of good looking workouts and with Christian Torres aboard instead of Ricardo Santana Jr. who had him too far back last out to be a threat. Watch for this Steve Asmussen trainee to trail up the backside but be finishing fastest of all late and maybe he can finally get it done, I’ll be cheering him and Verifying home come Saturday.
In post four is yet another Steve Asmussen trainee in previously mentioned Gun Pilot. This son of Gun Runner has two wins and one second in three career starts and has to be given some respect here, winning on debut pressing a quick pace and going on to win, he came back to employ the same tactics of prompting the pace and trying to draw off to win but Verifying swooped on and romped there, from that race, Gun Pilot came back to try stalking and he did that successfully, sitting fourth of seven throughout and lifting late to roll down the outside on to victory in allowance company.
There isn’t too much to say about this horse, but considering his foes in this race it’ll be another contender or pretender situation that this horse needs to prove. He could send or he could sit back, but I’ll expect him to sit third or fourth early and try to settle and get first run on the leaders as there are a few horses in this spot with early speed to flash. It’s another thing that Ricardo Santana Jr. Rides Gun Pilot and not Red Route One, it’s hard to read if he chose Gun Pilot over the other or if Asmussen didn’t want him on Red Route One.
Post five is an interesting one. Giant Mischief. We haven’t seen him since his only defeat in three starts, after hopping in the air at the start and getting completely left, the speedy son of Into Mischief was forced to close and finished a good second, hitting an invisible wall late in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park. Prior to that, he won on debut at Horseshoe Indy sprinting, he then went to an allowance at Keeneland where he prevailed in a hard-fought duel with Arabian Lion, getting the best of that foe and slipping away in the final 50 yards to win by just less than a length, Behind Arabian Lion was an 18-length gap to third. That gave this colt plenty of respect and hype, so for all of his followers, it was kind of deflating so see Brad Cox put him in a race as lackluster as the Springboard Mile at a track as small as Remington Park after such a high after an incredible allowance win at Keeneland on Breeders Cup World Championships weekend. It was even more deflating when this colt lost in the springboard mile after jumping in the air to start, I was never a fan of this horse and even less after his entry and defeat in the Springboard Mile. This one has a lot to prove, another case of him having to prove if he’s a contender or pretender for the Kentucky Derby.
Post six is an even more interesting one. Reincarnate. The very handsome dark gray and lightly dappled son of Breeders Cup Juvenile (Gr.1) and Haskell (Gr.1) winner rival to Justify, Good Magic, is coming off of a hard fought win in the Sham Stakes (Gr.3) over fellow Bob Baffert trainees. After the debacle between Baffert and CDI that has been going on since the 2021 Kentucky Derby, where Bob Baffert trainee Medina Spirit tested positive for Betamethasone after winning the famed race, Baffert and CDI have taken shots at each other since and one of the most recent ones is when someone pointed out an update to the triple crown nominations which hadn’t been there before and hadn’t been announced.
It read that Bob Baffert trainees needed to be transferred to a new trainer by February 28th to be eligible for the Kentucky Derby and so with that, Reincarnate is now with Bob Baffert protege Tim Yakteen. He boasts two wins and three seconds in five career races. On debut, he was second to Malibu Coast going a mile on turf at Del Mar, from there, he was second going a mile on turf at Santa Anita and he was defeated by Game Time. After that, he was second to stablemate Fort Bragg going a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt before he finally won going a mile on the dirt at Santa Anita, he didn’t beat much but won nonetheless by just under a length. Then, he was put in the Sham where he prevailed by a neck over Newgate, who recently was announced out for 90 days due to a minor hock issue out of a win in the Robert B. Lewis (Gr.3) but, there is one very interesting thing about Reincarnate.
That one thing is, that every single race he has run his Equibase speed figure has gone up. 87, 90, 92, 95 to a 103 more recently. That would mean he’s on track to run between 105 and 112 in this spot if he keeps that trend, and that type of figure would make him very competitive here. It will be interesting to see how he runs under Tim Yakteen, as last year Baffert trained Messier and Taiba to be some of the best three year olds into their final prep which they were transferred to Tim Yakteen just a week before the Santa Anita Derby (Gr.1), after all the work was done, where they went to a 1-2 finish and then were both far off the board in the Kentucky Derby, now, that could have been the nuclear early pace, but there is no doubt that Tim Yakteen is certainly not a trainer talked about very much, not at all before Baffert gave him Taiba and Messier for the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby causing us to expect him to get some of the Baffert’s this year. Look for Johnny V to send this horse with intent out of the gate.
Post seven is Confidence Game, a 15-1 shot who needs to find some form. He boasts a two win, one second and two thirds from six starts. On debut he was third when the highly popular Damon’s Mound won by thirteen lengths, creating quite the spectacle. Out of that third place finish, Confidence Game won by five lengths going six furlongs, he didn’t beat anyone great but it doesn’t matter when you win by five. Next out, he finished a disappointing fifth place in the Iroquois (Gr.3) and then had a month until his next start, finishing second in an allowance at Keeneland in mid october going a mile and a sixteenth while stalking early and running on into second, he was no match for Forbidden Secret who won by seven lengths.
Then, he stepped up for a huge effort, winning an allowance on the “Stars Of Tomorrow” card at Churchill Downs on November 26th, he won by half a length going a mile and a sixteenth in which he defeated recent Holy Bull (Gr.3) winner Rocket Can, who had to settle for second. Even more is that recent Withers (Gr.3) winner Hit Show, was fourth in that spot. After that high, the Lecomte (Gr.3) was next on the cards for the Keith Desormeaux trainee and that’s just where he went. He battled Echo Again early, who pulled up in the middle of the stretch, but Confidence Game was no match for Two Phil’s and Instant Coffee, leaving Confidence Game a disappointing third place. Now, Confidence Game is at a crucial time where he can show if he really has it or not.
He’s had some eye-catching victories against tough company, some encouraging runner up efforts but also some very average looking third places. He needs to show he’s the real deal and break through at the top level, he needs to find some form but if he runs the way he did defeating Rocket Can and Hit Show, he could just pull it off here. Look for the son of Candy Ride out of a winning half sister to Zenyatta to flash some speed early under James Graham.
Post eight is the 30-1 shot named after a Nascar racetrack, Talladega. The son of Into Mischief comes in with one win and one third in four starts. Rudolphe Brisset has named Flavien Prat aboard the Winstar owned three year old longshot who finished a very disappointing seventh place finish in a ten horse field on debut. The race was won by a recent impressive winner, the previously mentioned Two Eagles River.
Then, he stepped it up to a big effort in finishing third in the race that another recent winner and previously mentioned horse won, Gun Pilot. Then, it was another bad effort on January 14th at Oaklawn, the same day Verifying romped over Gun Pilot and Two Eagles River. Talladega finished a disappointing fifth, a frustrating effort for the Brisset camp after it seemed they had figured him out.
Most recently, he ran at Oaklawn on January 28th and finally had a breakthrough victory. He didn’t beat very much and only did it by half a length. This colt seems like he needs to find a lot of form here and doesn’t seem like a threat to the field. Watch for Flavien Prat to get him out of the gate with intent after a gate to wire victory last time out.
Post nine is another 30-1 longshot named Event Detail. A son of City Of Light, he is trained by Paul Lobo and has a record of one win and one second in three career starts coming in. On debut, he was sixth in a race that the highly touted Corona Bolt won. Event Detail stalked and yet came up empty in the lane, fading badly. He came back at Turfway Park on the first of January. He finished a good second to Eye Witness, who won by two lengths. He sat second throughout, while Eye Witness led throughout and that is how they finished.
From there, Event Detail ran on January 27th, going in it seemed like he had trouble passing horses but he silenced doubters and won going away by three lengths from sixth at one point, he sat midfield and made an aggressive move that resulted in a dominating win. He gets a second try on dirt which I don’t like when they could just wait for the John Battaglia Memorial. I’ll give this horse some respect but not much as a threat. I’d rather see him stay on Synthetic but let’s see how he does with a second try on turf now that he’s older and more mature both physically and mentally. Look for Gerardo Corrales to take back early and come running late with the son of City Of Light.
Drawing post ten is another City Of Light colt, it is the D. Wayne Lukas trainee Bourbon Bash. He comes in with one win, three seconds and one third in eight career races for the coach. On debut at the spa, he finished second to eventual Champagne Stakes (Gr.1) winner, the previously mentioned, Blazing Sevens. He came back to romp by eight lengths under a hand ride by Flavien Prat. He defeated Ohana Honor and graded stakes winner General Jim in that spot. Out of that impressive win, due to the early talent he flashed in his first two races he was sent to run in the Hopeful (Gr.1) which is also at Saratoga and he finished a disappointing fifth of six, where eventual champion Forte romped there over Gulfport and Blazing Sevens. He didn’t break well, rushed up and then faded late.
After that, he ran in the Breeders Futurity (Gr.1) and was a non-threatening twelfth place. He broke well, took command and wilted late. After a pair of disappointing starts, he ran in the Bowman Mill stakes at Keeneland and finished second to the ultra-fast sprinter Super Chow, settling in early he drew off by two lengths from Raise Can who was third but couldn’t reel in Super Chow who won by five. He went into the six and a half furlong Ed Brown stakes off of the promising run but finished sixth of the seven, he started well but the field just slipped away from him, and he was never involved, as
Powerful, who drew inside of him for the Rebel, would win that race. After that, on December 31st, he tried the Renaissance stakes and finished a distant third behind Frosted Departure and previously mentioned Two Eagles River. He finished two lengths behind the top two and eight lengths ahead of the rest of the field as he stalked from third early, moved up into second but couldn’t sustain his bid and slipped back into third. Most recently, on February 4th, he was second in an allowance to rival Rebel runner, Gun Pilot who lifted late to defeat Bourbon Bash. He broke well, pressed early, drew away three lengths from the rest but Gun Pilot got the best of him by two lengths, while he finished three and a half ahead of the rest of the field.
It seems like Bourbon Bash showed some very dominating early talent and then starting with the Hopeful to the Ed Brown, he really struggled before finding his form in his last few starts and trying to build back up to where he was, lets see if he continues to build back but I just don’t think he’s good enough to win here. Maybe he can pick up another third but I don’t think he’s quite good enough to finish top two. Look for Mickaelle Michel to send him out of the gate quickly and hustle up to be prominent in what will likely be a very quick pace early.
In post eleven, all the way to the outside is Frosted Departure at 20-1 with Francisco Arrieta in the irons for Ken McPeek. He comes in with three wins and two thirds in ten starts. The son of top miler Frosted has been running since July when he made a lackluster debut on July 2nd at Churchill Downs. He finished ninth of eleven that day, settling in near the rear early; he just never fired and was well beaten. That was the race that Damon’s Mound won by thirteen lengths that Confidence Game finished third in.
From there, Frosted Departure won at second asking and this time at Ellis Park on July 22nd, this time going to the front and not looking back, failed closer turned speed and he won by four lengths. In doing so, he beat a nice horse in Hayes Strike in that race. Next, he was fourth in the Ellis Park Juvenile. He stalked early but couldn’t stay with the top three as Top Recruit won by a head over Curly Jack who was fifteen lengths ahead of Roman Giant, who was three ahead of Frosted Departure. After that, he won an allowance at Churchill Downs on September 16th gate to wire by just under a length away from double digits in a race that included multiple stakes runner Prove Right.
From there, he went on to a tenth-place finish in the Breeders Futurity, stalking early and folding late but he still defeated Powerful and Bourbon Bash. After that disappointment, he ran seventh in the Street Sense (Gr.3) at Churchill Downs on October 30th, where once again he stalked early and folded late. Then, he came back swinging with a third-place finish in the Ed Brown stakes on November 26th, sitting fifth early he came running but ran out of time as Powerful won and Frosted Departure was third. Just when things looked good, he was evenly paced to finish a flat fourth in the Advent behind Count De Monet, Alto Road and Tyler’s Tribe. Then, he came back in the Renaissance at Oaklawn to win by a head, defeating Two Eagles River, Bourbon Bash and Count De Monet. Then, on January 28th, he ran in the $750,000 Southwest (Gr.3) and finished third, behind Arabian Knight and Red Route One, while holding off eventual Risen Star runner up Sun Thunder. Look for Francisco Arrieta to blast the experienced Frosted colt from the gate to get position down towards the rail and then settle in and come running late, if he grabs the lead you can bank on him being hard to get past.
Overall, this year’s Rebel seems like it will favor closers as there is a lot of speed and presser types in the 11-horse field. Verifying and Red Route One are the two horses to beat, Powerful needs to prove he can handle the distance and class, Gun Pilot needs to show once again he can rate and he’ll have to figure out how to get the best of Verifying after Verifying romped by six last time they met, Giant Mischief, Reincarnate, Confidence Game, Event Detail, Frosted Departure and Bourbon Bash all have something to prove here and I’m not too sure why Talladega is here. My two picks are Verifying and Red Route One, two good longshots would be Confidence Game and Gun Pilot. Good luck betting on this race, it should be a good one and there will be a follow up article after the race.
