Saratoga for eight more races, with fast dirt and firm turf setting the stage for another afternoon at The Spa.
Saratoga rarely hands out easy answers. Competitive fields, lightly raced horses, surface changes from race to race and plenty of public money mean finding the winner is only half the battle. Finding the right winner at the right price is what matters.
Terry and Rich will put Smart Sheets to work looking for:
SIM Odds versus the Morning Line
SIM Speed and Speed Edge
Early, Late and Total Pace advantages
Projected first-call leaders
C-Zone and PAR
Horses with identifiable upside
Potential overlays and vulnerable favorites
And as always at Saratoga, we’ll use the numbers for more than finding horses to play. Eliminating contenders and narrowing difficult races can be just as valuable when it comes time to construct Pick 4s, exactas and the rest of the tickets.
Eight more at The Spa.
Fast dirt. Firm turf.
Let’s find some winners—and more importantly, some value.
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Race 1
Terry’s Picks
1. 6 – Oath: Finished in the money in 1 races out of 2 career starts; Switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the starts when drops off claim; Switches to a high % winning jockey.
2. 1 – Spirit Forward: Has a high % jockey; Can improve while returning to Dirt.
3. 2 – Essence L Vee: Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Good 4F workout (Aug-13).
Longshot:
7 – Ready Rosie Jane: Good Workouts.
Alternate: None
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Early Speed, 2/3 and 8+ Best
1. 2 – ESSENCE L VEE – TLRSP# +4 and still has more
2. 1 – SPIRIT FORWARD – maybe more upside than the 7 – 3rd race 1st Lasix
3. 7 – READY ROSIE JANE – one has to be 4th of 4
Race 2
Terry’s Picks
1. 6 – Light Fantastic: Will improve while returning to a sprint; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. 8 – Tamino: Drops in class today; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3. 4 – Armet: Won last race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races in the 2nd grass race; Switches to a high % jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Into Diamonds: Highest last race speed rating; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Night
5 – Two Ducks
Suggested Wager: $.50 Pick 4: 3,4,6,8/1,3,4,6/All/7 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Closers, everything but 2/3 but rail Best
1. 8 – TAMINO – most upside and biggest dropper – looking for more in 2nd up
2. 1 – NIGHT – could be on the pace as Lone E with standout C ZONE
3. 3 – INTO DIAMONDS – SIM FAV with Top PAR+ finally healthy horse
4. 5 – TWO DUCKS – longest shot with a credible winning path as Top TOTAL PACE
Race 3
Terry’s Picks
1. 3 – Max O Nidas: First time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters and 1 stakes winner; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. 6 – Maddenbleu: First time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; strong trainer and jockey stats.
3. 4 – Parkridge: Drops in class; trainer wins 30% Maiden-to-Maiden Claiming; high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Medieval: Rail post is winning at 24% clip; Can improve while returning to dirt; Drops in class today.
Alternate:
2 – Boer War
Rich’s Picks
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 49% w2w – Inside Out
1. 3 – MAX O NIDAS – Top Rated 1ster vs other 1sterd and noes
2. 2 – BOER WAR – 3rd rated 1ster with a bullet and go – slight nod over the 6
3. 6 – MADDENBLEU – 2nd rated 1ster
4. 4 – PARKRIDGE – 2nd race upside – had to go wide in debut
Race 4
Terry’s Picks
1. 4 – Cash Burn: First time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time Starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 3F workout (Aug-15)
2. 2 – Dry Drastic: First time starter whose high % winning trainer who wins 19% of debut Maiden Sp Wt; Has a high % winning jockey; Bullet 4F workout (Aug-09).
3. 5 – Secret Connection: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Aug-14).
Longshot:
1 – Early Returns: First time starter whose Sire wins 27% with 1st time Starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Chic in Motion
6 – Early and Often
Rich’s Picks
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Stalkers, Inside 3 best, 4+ Inside Better
1. 4 – CASH BURN – first timers in order as both experienced horses need major improvement
2. 2 – DRY DRASTIC
3. 3 – CHIC IN MOTION
4. 1 – EARLY RETURNS
Race 5
Terry’s Picks
1. 7 – Deported: European import beaten 2 lengths on AW last out; good 4F workout (Aug-09); strong trainer/jockey stats; adds Lasix.
2. 5 – Escapades: Has a high % winning trainer; Switches to a high % winning jockey; Breeding suggests he will like the grass as Dam has 7 winners from 10 starters and 4 Turf winners.
3. 3 – Oligarch: Ran 2nd in 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
1 – Himoth: Smart Sheet yes horse; Strong jockey stats.
Alternate:
8 – Nod to Tran
Suggested Wager: $.50 Pick 4: 5,7/2,6/1,3,6,7/2,4,5,6,8,9 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Closers, everything but 2/3 but rail Best
1. 7 – DEPORTED – well-bred foreign invader – Wesley Ward horse – been running vs better
2. 1 – HIMOTHY – Lone YES has to be near the top of the list
3. 5 – ESCAPADES – Lone pure MSW dropper – 3rd race bounce back – strong turf breeding too
4. 3 – OLIGARCH – SIM FAV with a solid TOTAL PACE profile
Suggested Bet: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,5,7/2,4/1,3,7/2,4,5,8,9
Race 6
Terry’s Picks
1. 2 – Valtellina: Finished in the money in 3 races out of 5 starts at Saratoga; Highest last race speed rating; Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; strong trainer and jockey stats.
2. 6 – Princess Becca: Won last race at Saratoga; strong trainer and jockey stats.
3. 3 – Sweetest Princess: Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races in the 2nd race after claim; high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Boxed Wine: Won 2 races out of the last 4 races; Drops in class today; strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate:
4 – Hello Beauty
5 – Giant At Work
Suggested Wager: $20.00 Win: 2 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 2/6 – $10.00 Exacta: 2/1,3,6 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 2,3,6
Rich’s Picks
Race 6: 1 Mile – Early Speed, 2/3 and 8+ Best
1. 2 – VALTELLINA – average race is as good or better than the best for the rest
2. 4 – HELLO BEAUTY – most improved last out – better MID-LP and earl Fractions – 2nd up
3. 6 – PRINCESS BECCA – could try to steal this one on the lead
4. 1 – BOXED WINE – slowly moving up the speed ladder – cutting back in distance helps?
Race 7
Terry’s Picks
1. 7 – Jaxer: Won 2 races in a row going for a hat trick; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. 3 – A Little At First: Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning jockey and jockey.
3. 1 – Chummers: Won last race; Rail post is winning at 25% clip; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Good 4F workout (Aug-14).
Longshot:
6 – Spirit of New York: Finished in the money in 3 races out of 5 starts at Saratoga, winning 1 race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate:
2 – Big Frosty
Rich’s Picks
Race 7: 1 Mile Inner Turf – Stalkers, Rail Strongest, 4-7 Next, 8+ Tough
1. 3 – A LITTLE AT FIRST – better 5 ways – Top SIM SP# by a decent margin and Top TOTAL PACE
2. 1 – CHUMMERS – 4 SP# increases in a row – head from winning both at Toga
3. 7 – JAXER –Prat rode this and the 1 the last 2 times stays here on the Standout C ZONE
4. 5 – WIT STORM – tough call over the 6 – but YES vs Maybe, most upside and 6 has faced many in here and hasn’t beaten one of them – I’ll take the bigger price with more upside
Suggested Bet: $5 Exacta Key Box: 3/1,5,6,7
Race 8
Terry’s Picks
1. 2 – She’s Got Will: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. 6 – Gracie’s Delight: Won last race at Keenland; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Bullet 4F workout (Aug-06).
3. 8 – River Seine: Finished in the money in 3 races out of the last 5 starts, winning 2 races; strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
9 – From Scratch: Won last race at Saratoga; High % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Just Add Water
4 – River Tay
Rich’s Picks
Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Closers, everything but 2/3 but rail Best
1. 8 – RIVER SEINE – fairly heavy SIM FAV – biggest drop and only PAR+>50
2. 2 – SHE’S GOT WILL – been off since mid May – 3rd and win in pair of long breaks 2/2 at Toga
3. 4 – RIVER TAY – strong C ZONE for Top Closer and a YES at a price
4. 9 – FROM SCRATCH – most upside – TLRSP# +3 – turf 5/0-0-1 – distance 3/0-0-1
Suggested Bet: $5 Exacta Key Box: 8/2,4,5,9
Best Bet of the Day at Saratoga
Race 6 – #2 Valtellina
Valtellina is Terry’s Best Bet of the Day at Saratoga. She brings a strong combination of current form, proven Saratoga performance and a favorable class move into today’s one-mile event. She owns the highest last-race speed rating in the field, has the fastest proven dirt speed among today’s starters and has finished in the money in three of five starts at Saratoga.
Rich lands on the same horse, noting that Valtellina’s average race is as good as or better than the best races the rest of this field has produced. That makes #2 Valtellina the strongest point of agreement between Terry and Rich on today’s Saratoga card.
Terry’s Suggested Wager:
$20 Win – #2 Valtellina
$10 Exacta Box – 2/6
$10 Exacta – 2/1,3,6
$5 Exacta Box – 2,3,6
