After two days of weather-related cancellations at Parx, we’re back to work and headed south to Tampa Bay Downs for a 9-race card under much better conditions. Today’s program offers a solid mix of fast dirt and firm turf, with competitive fields that reward proper surface evaluation, pace awareness, and race-shape understanding. On this show we focus on: How fast dirt vs firm turf impacts form and running styles Horses set up to improve with clean weather and consistent footing Trainer and rider patterns that matter at Tampa Bay Races where structure beats chaos — and vice versa It feels good to be back in action, breaking down races and doing what we do best. If you’ve been waiting to get back into a normal rhythm, this is a great card to lock in. 👍 Like the video if the analysis helps 🔔 Subscribe for daily race-day breakdowns
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Terry’s Picks
Tampa Bay Downs – 1-21-26
Race 1-Female
3 – Knowledge Is Good – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Modern Miss – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
6 – Grenache – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races in the 2nd start with trainer; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
2 – My Lil Flirt – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Lasix added.
Alternate:
5 – D Orbie’s Girl
Race 2
5 – Uncashed – Won 3 races out of the last 4 starts; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and likes the distance.
4 – Naughty Rascal – Drops in class today; Gets a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey; Lasix added.
2 – Beeline – Shows early speed, may benefit from shorter distance; trained and ridden by high-percentage winners.
Longshot:
1 – Abeliefinthislivin – Won last race at Tampa Bay Downs; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the allowance races; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Dreaming of Kona
6 – Rouki
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,5/4,9,10,11/1,3//3,6,7,8– Cost $48.00
Race 3
11 – Speaker’s Lobby – 2nd last out at Tampa Bay Downs; top last race speed rating; trainer has a high win percentage.
9 – Alrasikh – 3rd last out vs similar; Top speed at today’s distance; Fastest turf speed in the field.
10 – And Thats My Story – Finished in the money in 7 races out of the last 8 starts, winning 1 race; Drops in class today.
Longshot:
4 – Efficacy – Drops in class today; has a high % winning trainer who wins 66% of the races in the 2nd start with trainer; Switches to a high % winning jockey
Alternate:
12 – Red Sky Morning
6 – Stoneybrook Road
$.50 Pick 4: 4,9,10,11/1,3/3,6,7,8/2,4,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 4
1 – Cinco de Mo – Finished in the money in 5 races out of the last 6 starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Peace Not War – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Switches to a high % winning jockey; Can improve while returning to a sprint.
7 – Capture the Time – Placed in 8 of 11 races at Tampa Bay Downs with 4 wins: shares fastest dirt speed today
Longshot:
6 – Peace Cloud – Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Alternate:
2 – Greyzer
Race 5-Female
7 – Kaffeinate – Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Lasix added.
8 – Paiute – First-time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Consider Me First – Drops in class today; Best Turf speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed; Lasix added.
Longshot:
6 – French Tip – Trainer and jockey have high win rates.; Lasix added.
Alternate:
5 – French Tipt
Race 6
4 – I’m Mischievous: Shows potential switching back to dirt and sprinting; trained by a 17% route-to-sprint winner; paired with a top-winning jockey.
10 – Red Fern – High-percent trainer; now paired with a top-winning jockey; shares today’s fastest dirt speed; Lasix added; solid Jan 14 4F workout.
2 – Night Raven – Highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
6 – Ashryver –Has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Reagan’s Renegade
7 – Lighting Arrow
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6,10/4,5/1,3,5/2,3,6,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 7-Female
4 – Attending – Placed in 6 of 12 starts with 1 win; finished 2nd against similar last out (on Dirt); trainer and jockey have strong win records.
5 – Bells of Bram – In the money in 4 of 7 career starts, with 1 win.
10 – Backseat Romance – Finished in the money in 2 races out of the last 2 starts, winning 1 race: Switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Tinkatwo – Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race; Has a high % winning Trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – She’s Gone Rogue
Bet: $20.00 Win: 4 – $10.00 Exacta Box:4/5 – $10.00 Exacta: 4/2,5,10 – $5.00 Exacta Box:4,5,10
Race 8
1 – Paynter’s Prodigy – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Likes the distance.
3 – Downtown Connector – During career he has finished in the money in 50% of the races, winning 19% of the starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Hari – Placed in 7 of 8 races at Tampa Bay Downs, with 2 wins; Trainer wins 26% when dropping horses 2+ classes; Jockey has a strong win rate.
Longshot:
7 – Political Riot – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Street Glide
4 – Cox Canyon
Race 9-Female
3 – Mischievous Trick – Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; trainer and jockey have high win rates.
8 – Classicals Finale: In the money in 3 of last 4, with 1 win; drops in class today; High-percentage winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Sea Shanty – Drops in class today; Trained by a high-percentage trainer; Switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Honorable Chill –Has a high % winning jockey: Can handle the distance.
Alternate:
4 – Nicky Jolene
7 – Nelida
Best Bet of the Day at Tampa Bay Downs – 7th Race – #4 – Attending
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 1 Mile 40 Yards
3 – KNOWLEDGE IS GOOD – 3 SP# increases with TLRSP#+3 and SIM FAV
6 – GRENACHE – one of 2 YES horses with the 4
4 – MODERN MISS – the other YES horse better EP in last
5 – D ORBIE’S GIRL – was better in both races since debut – Z pattern
Race 2: 6 Furlongs
5 – UNCASHED – lots of early speed, +1 Length ES and top TOTAL PACE +7
2 – BEELINE – track dropper that has absolutely been in vs tougher
4 – NAUGHTY RASCAL – biggest class dropper – catching Lasix for the 1st time
3 – DREAMING OF KONA – elite LS in his last – might be better in 2nd up
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,5/4,9,10,11/1,2,6/3,6,7,8
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles Turf
10 – AND THATS MY STORY – YES Horse that is dropping in class – 2nd up
9 – ALRASIKH – another YES horse and makes the 3rd start after a layoff
11 – SPEAKER’S LOBBY – just missed last out – drops and likely better in 2nd up
4 – EFFICACY – another YES horse – maybe better in 2nd TB run – decent work
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,9,10,11/1,2,6/3,8/2,3,7,10
$0.50 Trifecta: 4,9,10,11/9,10,11/4,5,9,10,11,12
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs
2 – GREYZER – TLRSP#+5 – biggest in race edge of 2 lengths LS and Top TOTAL PACE
1 – CINCO DE MO – SIM FAV – better EP & Fractions – any better in 2nd up could be enough
6 – PEACE CLOUD – run back to December 10 race = EZ win
3 – PEACE NOT WAR – TB 5/0-2-2 – super consistent
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,3,6,8
Race 5: 1 Mile Turf
3 – CONSIDER ME FIRST – Big SIM FAV – Top TOTAL PACE with highest 2nd race parability
8 – PAIUTE – highest rated 1st timer – strong Turf Breeding – Chad Brown horse
7 – KAFFEINATE – 2nd most 2nd race upside
6 – LA RODADA – YES Horse track dropping from GP – maybe 1st Lasix helps
$4 Exacta Key Box: 3/6,7,8
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs
2 – NIGHT RAVEN – fairly consistent – Z Pattern and cut back in distance helps
3 – STAR PRINCE – 3 SP# Increases another Z Pattern and cuts back in class
10 – RED FERN – top TOTAL PACE +6 – better EP in last – track dropper with Lasix
7 – LIGHTING ARROW – only MSW dropper, track dropper and 2nd race upside – got to have him
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,7,10/3,5/1,3,5,12/6,7,8
Race 7: 1 Mile Turf
3 – MY LITTLE WILDCAT – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE – sizable class drop
5 – BELLS OF BRAM – been very close in last 4 with 5 SP# increases in a row
4 – ATTENDING – very consistent performer and should improve in 2nd up
9 – SLIVER OF SUNSHINE – better early in last and finished well in last
$0.50 Trifecta: 3,4,5,9/3,4,5/3,4,5,8,9,10
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles
3 – DOWNTOWN CONNECTOR – run back to Dec 13 race is enough
1 – PAYNTER’S PRODIGY – moving up the speed ladder – just missed in last – top TP +6
12 – CHICO CHARLIE – Tied for SIM FAV in open race – out front with Top C ZONE
5 – HARI – biggest class dropper – trainer hits at 27% in drops of 2 classes or more
Race 9: 1 Mile Turf
8 – CLASSICALS FINALE – SIM FAV with better EP and Fractions
7 – NELIDA – will be closing and showed better ES in last
6 – SEA SHANTY – could be better in 2nd up and 2nd at Tampa
2 – HONORABLE CHILL – 4 of last 5 races probably good enough
