Lifelong Horse Racing Enthusiast and respected handicapper Sean Patrick Nolan comes to share his wisdom with the Players Edge. SPN, Terry, Tom, Shawn and Rich, will make their Saturday picks for some BIG races at Belmont Park:
Belmont R8: $700,000 MAN O WAR STAKES
Belmont R9: $200,000 PETER PAN STAKES
Belmont R10: $150,000 BEAUGAY STAKES
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Belmont Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Belmont R8: $700,000 MAN O WAR STAKES GRADE I
3 – Yibir has traveled to the USA and won the only two races he competed in easily including the G1 -Breeders’ Cup Turf Race and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters. He ran 2nd in his last race in the G2-Betfair Exchange Jockey Club Stakes and the trainer wins 25% of the races when he ships a horse in to race.
2 – Gufo took a 5-month break and then in his first race back he wins the G2 – Pan America race earning the highest last race speed rating. During his career he has finished in the money in 93% of the races, winning 53% of the races on the turf races.
4 – Abaan finished 2nd to Gufo in the G2 – Pan America race. He has finished in the money in seven out of eight turf races and has won at todays distance. He likes to break on top and if he can do that, get no pressure he could lead all the way for the win at a decent price.
1 – Easter came in from France and in his first race in the USA he finished 3rd behind So High after breaking slow. He has finished in the money in 55% of his races, winning 22% of those races on the turf.
Belmont R9 – $200,000 PETER PAN STAKES GRADE III
2 – Electability won his last race at Aqueduct by staying close to the leader and out finishing that horse. His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, he is trained by Chad Brown and switches to high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, Jr together in last 14 days have finished in the money four out of four starts, winning two of the races.
1 – Set Sail comes in from Santa Anita where he won a one-mile race by 7-1/2 lengths leading all the way. Trainer Richard Mandella wins 32% of the races when shipping a horse in to run in a race.
7 – Western River won his last race at Oaklawn Park going a mile and a sixteen. He is a deep closer and the extra 1/16th of a mile will be a plus for him. He has been training well for this contest having two bullet workouts in a row.
4 – We the People won two races in a row at Oaklawn Park, one being at today’s distance and then threw in a clunker in his last race as he broke slow and was 5-wide at 7/8 pole. That was in the G1-Arkansas Derby against very touch company and now he is in a race where he can be a little more competitive.
Belmont R10 – $150,000 BEAUGAY STAKES GRADE III
4 – Plum Ali won her last race at Aqueduct after a 5-month break receiving the highest last race speed rating (tie). She is versatile, she can either lead or come off the pace to win a race. Jockey Manny Franco in last 7 days has finished in the money in six out of eleven starts, winning three of the races.
1 – Rougir came in from France to compete in the G1-Breeders Cup Female Turf race and finished 7th but had trouble checking early and was tight in the 2nd turn. She switches to high % winning trainer Chad Brown and has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
2 – Lemista finished 3rd in her last race the G1-Beverly D last August, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-2-0).
3 – Stolen Holiday ran second in her last race after having trouble during the race. She is another horse that is versatile, as she can lead or come off the pace to win a race. She has done well at Belmont and at today’s distance.
$.50 Pick 4– Cost $96.00
Race 8: 3
Race 9: 1, 2, 4, 7
Race 10: 1, 2, 3, 4
Race 11: 1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Belmont R8: $700,000 MAN O WAR STAKES GRADE I
PACE PROJECTION: In this small 6 horse field looks like 2 horses could get out in front with the longshot #6 So High being the one that needs it the most. A bunch of good horses that are closers will be flying late.
#3 Yibir– 2 for 2 here in the stats including winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf and a win here at Belmont. Out of all the horses in this field this one has faced the toughest competition.
#4 Abaan– Will have a pace advantage as he will be either on the lead or most likely second stalking the longshot #6 So High. In Turf races has been in the exacta in 7 of 8 lifetime turf races.
#2 Gufo– Another that will be flying late and is battle tested. The only horse in the field that has won at Belmont more than once.
Plays: $20 Ex 3/ 4 $5 Tri 3/2,4/2,4
Belmont R9 – $200,000 PETER PAN STAKES GRADE III
PACE PROJECTION: There’s some speed in this race especially from the inside with the #1 Set Sail and the #2 Electability. The two that will probably stalk behind them are the #4 We the People and the #7 Cooke Creek.
#1 Set Sail– Should be able to get the early lead from the rail. Last race had to battle in the beginning and then drew off to win by over 7 lengths. Now gets a little bit more distance which he should like.
#4 We the People– Was very impressive in his first two starts of his career. His last race was the Arkansas Derby where he was 2-1 and finished 5th. Just came up empty that day but it was a tough field with two Kentucky Derby horses and the Oaks winner in the field.
#6 Western River– Will be coming late and I think there is enough pace in here for him to get a piece. Since coming back from a 7 month layoff has been a much improved horse. Must also like the dirt a lot better than the turf or good race track he started his career on.
PLAYS: $20 win #1 $1 Exbox 1,4,6 $1 Tribox 1,4,6
Belmont R10 – $150,000 BEAUGAY STAKES GRADE III
PACE PROJECTION: Looks like 2 horses with speed. I expect the #3 Stolen Holiday to get the early lead with also the #4 Plum Ali up close. The couple closers that are favorite will be trying to close.
#4 Plum Ali– Could get the early lead or just sit second pretty easily here . Has won 2 in a row and is a perfect 3 for 3 at this distance. This is her second start back after a 5 month layoff.
#1 Rougir– Coming back from a 6 month layoff. Last race was at the Breeders Cup. In that race she lost to some really good horses. She also had a bad trip as she had to check early in the race. Clearly the class and the horse to beat. Lack of pace could be the only reason she gets beat.
#3 Stolen Holiday– Has good early pace in a race that lacks it. Really stepping up in class. Does like Belmont’s turf finishing in the Trifecta in 3 of 4 races.
PLAYS: $20 win #4 $1 Exbox 1,3,4 $1 Tribox 1,3,4
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Belmont R8: $700,000 MAN O WAR STAKES GRADE I
3 – Yibir
Ran 2nd last out at Newmarket and did not enjoy the rolling course at all. He couldn’t keep a straight line and needed that race. He sat about 4L off the pace in that race.
Belmont, inter turf and flat track course he prefers and has won at Belmont
He has been developed into a top horse for Godolphin progressing from 2 to 3 and from maiden to listed to group 3 – 2 -1 racing
BC winners with powerful move from the back
Small field last time, small field again with firm going this time
Top rider William Buick is over to ride
4 – Abaan
Made the lead in last at the top of the straight only to run 2nd by 2L to Gufo
He won 3 in a row at distance of 1 3/8 to 2m but only as high as grade 3 race
He had trouble race in March ran made a move, backed up and ran 4th as the favorite
Best speed# last out and will need to be on the lead to have a chance of controlling the pace to win, he will have company and may let them go.
If makes a move too early, he will get caught again
2 – Gufo
Cloud running specialist won this last race with style and w/o blinkers last out
I don’t know what happened in the BC race, he was sent out and nothing
This late running will need something to run at and I think there is some pace to set him up.
First move to beat Yibir?
Belmont R9 – $200,000 PETER PAN STAKES GRADE
7 – Cooke Creek
Won first 2 races then ran 2nd and 3rd before at very disappointing run in the Withers
But, that was in the mud and wide draw, wide trip and nothing – toss
Layoff, even works should be better here on a fast track and 1 turn race
Sire has produced many winners, dam side, she was a grade 3 stakes winner at MTH and very completive in other graded stakes. Her other foal is a winner too.
2 – Electability
Won last 2 races gamely at AQU going 1 mile
First start on turf was not good – tossed
Should be close to the lead and will move at the end, added distance shouldn’t be an issue
Sire has produced very good, graded stakes winners, dam side she raced 8 times with 1 win 2 seconds and 2 thirds at distance, her first foal is a winner too.
8 – State Planning
A winner of last 2 with a late run to win maiden by 17L and repeat win in OC80K vs NY state breds.
Steps up in company and should be able to run the added distance after wins at 1 mile
With some pace up front, he should be in position to make a run here
Since his last 2 were at AQU, the 1 turn 1 1/8 will suit
Sire has produced winners on both turf and dirt, dam side she ran 6 times with 4 wins 1 second preferred a bit of ground too and ALW winner, other foal is also a winner
Belmont R10 – $150,000 BEAUGAY STAKES GRADE III
4 – Plum Ali
Won last 2 races running more towards the front of the field, pervious races she wanted to close from farther back without winning success.
But, going back farther, she won the Miss Grillo nearer to the pace
Has she matured enough? Last races say yes
This is a tough bunch that this race could be a grade 2 race with these competitors
1 – Rougir
Toss last, BC race was a troubled trip and just a mess for her
Transferred to Chad Brown and she working steadily for her first start of the year
She won the Prix de l’Opera Group 1 at Longchamp last year beating a top horse in Grand Glory (group 1 winner). She also won a group 3 as a 2 year old
When she’s on, she missed by small margins, nk, ns, etc…
When she doesn’t run, she back in the field
Layoff is a concern, but this is a bit of a drop in class after running against Mother Earth, Joan of Arc, Rumi, etc…
Also the distance may not be far enough for her even though she won at 1 mile but one turn.
She was not a cheap purchase of 3.3 million
2 – Lemista
Hasn’t won here yet but is a group winner but not here
She has run 3rd and 2nd in graded stakes at Bel and AP
She has won off layoffs before.
Wins at Curragh, Gowran Park, & Naas
If she handles the interturf track and 2 turns, she has a chance
Rich’s Ranks
Belmont R8: $700,000 MAN O WAR STAKES GRADE I
2 – Gufo
3 – Yibir
4 – Abaan
6 – So High
Belmont R9 – $200,000 PETER PAN STAKES GRADE III
2 – Electability
4 – We The People
1 – Set Sail
5 – Golden Slider
Belmont R10 – $150,000 BEAUGAY STAKES GRADE III
2 – Lemista
4 – Plum Ali
5 – Runaway Rumour
1 – Rougir
