TVG personality, handicapper and horse racing fan, Todd Schrupp is this week’s The Player’s Edge guest. He joins the cast to talk about what else? Horse racing at Pimlico this weekend including:
Friday:
R 13: Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
Saturday:
R 12: Jim McKay Turf Sprint
R 13: Preakness Stakes
Of course, you can watch Todd on TVG and follow him on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ToddTVG
Pimlico Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Friday:
Pimlico Race 13: Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
4 – Midnight Stroll
Winner of last 2 races on the lead all the way
Last win vs state-breds showed good pace and a comfortable finish at 7F
Steps back to 2 turns and already won open company maiden race
Since her first race, speed numbers keep getting better from 67 to 91 in last race
Works at Bel have been good into this race off a layoff, she’s won before off a layoff
12 – Favor
2 wins at 1 mile and last out was interesting, showed greenness by luging out and then chased the winner in FG Oaks
Layoff to prepare for this race with works at Bel (last 2)
Hate the post 12 but likes 2 turns and can stalk the lead
She will need good position coming into the first turn to have a chance and she has run wide and won in the past
10 – Adare Manor
Missed last out off a layoff in SA Oaks, battled all the way just came up short. Need race,
Her 2 wins were by a total of 25L at 1 mile
Strong speed numbers but will she handle Pimlico and wide draw?
Works good, should be with the leaders coming to the first turn
Trip will be everything for this horse
5 – Beguine
Missed in the Fantasy by a neck
Only a maiden winner and was entered in the KY Oaks but opted for this race
Change of riders to Jose Ortiz will help her chances
She wants 2 turn racing and be running here at the end
Saturday:
Pimlico Race 13: Preakness Stakes
5 – Early Voting
Won 1st 2 in front running style then was caught at the end by McDougal in the Wood
Skipped KY Derby (Chad Brown had other horses for that race) to run here
Makes good sense to me, plenty of speed, good post position and if the track comes up muddy, well maybe game over
Good works at Bel suggests he’s ready for a big effort
6 – Happy Jack
Noting in the KY Derby, off slow and beat 6 horses – toss
2 3rds at SA behind runs in the derby who also came up short
He’s not going to win but with a better trip he gets a placing
Why play? Why not see if with a better run and some racing luck he can be in the money, that’s all I am looking for.
8 – Epicenter
Got caught (as everyone knows) at the wire after making the lead and looked like the winner but
Plenty of speed here but also has shown tactical speed and placement
I just don’t know how much the last 2 races took out of him?
Maintenance work at CD for this race
Favorite
1 – Simplification
Went from 15th to 4th in KY Derby losing by 3 1/2L
Let’s try again and see but rail maybe a good thing for this horse – 20% win record at Pimlico
Every race in his 8-race career, he has shown up and run well with 3 wins
This is a speed favoring track so it’s hard for me to see him winning but in the money, yes
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Friday:
Pimlico Race 13: Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
PACE PROJECTION: There’s as many as 4 horses in here who might try for the early lead. The two main speed players are the #2 Miss Greer and the #10 Adare Manor. Will they set up for closers or will one get away?
#7 Distinctlypossible– Has had only 3 races but has never finished outside of the exacta. The two horses she has lost to our Gerrymander and Juju’s Map. Both very good horses. Second start after a six month layoff her first start back was her maiden win. Will be ready to fire and should like the extra distance.
#6 Luna Belle– Has won 5 straight races and none of the races have been close. They also all were with this same Jockey Denis Araujo and all in the state of Maryland. Has won six of eight races on a fast dirt track.
#10 Adare Manor– The deserving ML favorite. My issue would be can she win off the pace. She might have to do that here and she hasn’t shown that dimension yet. So far if she doesn’t get the early lead she doesn’t win.
Plays: $20 win #7 #1 exacta key box 7/6,10 $1 trifecta box 6,7,10
Saturday:
Pimlico Race 12: Jim McKay Turf Sprint
PACE PROJECTION: A turf sprint with plenty of speed in the race as you would expect. #2 Carotari, #7 Grateful Bred, #9 Hollis, and #10 Concrete Glory will all be trying for that early lead. There is so much speed in here I think you need to look at a horse that can close from mid pack
#6 Smokin Jay– With so much speed in here he has a good chance closing from mid pack. Has done well at this distance with a win and a third in two starts. Has had off 5 months which should help due to all the traveling he was doing. He should be fresh.
#2 Carotari– Could be the speed of the speed. Has finished in the exacta in 9 of 12 races at this distance. Has done well running after a break before. Coming in here off a five-month break.
#7 Grateful Bred– This horse has speed but can be just off the lead as well. The only horse in this field that has won on this turf course twice as he is 2 for 2. Overall, on turf has been in the exacta in 7 of 10 races.
PLAYS: $10 win #6 $1 Exbox 2,6,7
Pimlico Race 13: Preakness Stakes
PACE PROJECTION: There’s three horses who will be part of the early pace #5 Early Voting, #7Armagnac, and #8 Epicenter. #4 Secret Oath will be mid pack before she makes her big sweeping move.
#4 Secret Oath– She got a bad trip in the Arkansas Derby if it wasn’t for that she could be coming into this race on 5 race win streak. She will have enough pace in front of her to run down late. The nice thing is she doesn’t even need too much of a pace as she’s going to make a huge sweeping move from about mid pack. Luis Saez we all know will give her a good trip and a good shot to win this race.
#8 Epicenter– The deserving ML favorite and the one to beat. Will she bounce after that great Kentucky Derby runner up finish would be my question. She really dug deep to hold off Zandon in that race.
#1 Simplification– Will be closing strongly and in my opinion there is enough pace in here for him to get something to run into. Will not beat the top 2 but can get a piece.
PLAYS: $30 win #4 $10 exbox 4,8 $1 Tri 1,4,8
Rich’s Ranks
Friday:
Pimlico Race 13: Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
10 – ADARE MANOR
6 – LUNA BELLE
4 – MIDNIGHT STROLL
13 – MORNING MATCHA
Saturday:
Pimlico Race 12: Jim McKay Turf Sprint
7 – GRATEFUL BRED
2 – CAROTARI
9 – HOLLIS
3 – SEVEN SCENTS
Pimlico Race 13: Preakness Stakes
5 – EARLY VOTING
8 – EPICENTER
9 – SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING
1 – SIMPLIFICATION
