Rinaldo Del Gallo, III
By: Rinaldo Del Gallo, III
I don’t hold myself as an expert handicapper (I am more a history of horse racing and policy type of guy), but this is how this fan sees this year’s Kentucky Derby. Handing is not what I consider my Forte, and yes, that pun was totally intended.
In this year’s Kentucky Derby, there were a lot of horses that came in 2nd or 3rd by very close margins in the last major prep races that might offer big prices. The favorite, Forte, might be bet down too much, but he may not. We shall see.
On the upside, Forte had an awful trip in the Florida Derby. At one point he was trapped in-between horses. At the final turn, he had to go way out wide, and it looked like he had too much distance to make up. The announcer literally said that Forte needed to hurry up, he was so far behind. Forte won the Florida Derby anyway—you have to love a horse that has a horrific trip and wins anyhow.
On the downside, Forte had an inferior Beyer speed figure of 95 compared to the other horses that won major prep races, who earned 99 or 100 Beyer speed figures. The Arkansas Derby winner (Angel of Empire)—that race was the only $1,250,000 Kentucky Derby prep race—received a 94 Beyer. Angle of Empire has an upward procession of Beyer Speed Figures (74, 85, 85, and 94). Forte’s are going the other way (95, 98, and 100). But as I said, Forte had a troubled trip. If Angel of Empire starts wandering to 10-1 or 11-1 from his 8-1 morning line, I see value.
Forte wins the Florida Derby in a Troubled Trip
The difficulty with handicappers generally is that they give their picks just assuming that the morning line odds will be betting odds. Horses often go off at prices not expected. Obviously, there is a point where Forte might drift in price from his morning line odds of 3-1 and make a good bet. I would not take him at 3-1. I would take him at 7-1. I would love him at 10-1. His Beyer speed figure was not great compared to those in the Santa Anita Derby or Blue Grass (95 versus 100 is no small difference), but that Houdini-like win in that nightmare trip must be respected.
While the usual crowd of bettors has now caught on that Japan has fielded some excellent runners in major international races, the general public that only bets once or twice a year may not have. The Kentucky Derby is famous for having some irrational betting. I believe the Japanese horses might be overlooked and present betting value as the general public may not be aware of Japanese bred horse excellence as of late.
In the old days (and yes, I know tracks do not run the same), we used to look at times. Kingsbarn won the 1 3/16 Louisiana Derby in 1.57.33. The Japanese Horse Derma Sotogake, albeit a son of a sprinter, had a time of 1:55 4/5 in the 1 mile UAE Derby, also with a million dollar purse. Historically, the victors of the UAE Derby have done pretty badly in the Kentucky Derby—I know one has never won, and I believe (but did not research) that none have even placed in the top three. (In horse racing talk, “in the money.”) But if Derma Sotogake starts drifting off his 10-1 morning line odds to pay some more, he might be a good bet. More often than not, but far from always, a time of 1:55 4/5 will win the Preakness, but the track in Dubai might be fast.
He is an “also eligible,” but the Japanese horse Mandarin Hero had a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in the Santa Anita Derby where he was second. If he went off at 20-1, I would bet him if he gets in the race. I like Skinner at 20-1 as well. Even though Skinner was 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby, he assured himself a spot because he won other Kentucky Derby prep races. Skinner earned 45 road-to-the-Kentucky Derby points to Mandarin Hero’s 40. I don’t know how much weight to put in the purse differential. The Santa Anita Derby purse was $750 K. The Arkansas Derby was $1,250 K. That’s a half-million dollar difference. Did it affect field quality? I will leave that up to you. But Mandarin Hero was bumped at the start and had to do some jockeying about at the end.
2023 Santa Anita Derby
Call me a speed figure freak, but even though it was for much less money, a high speed figure at a prestigious park like Santa Anita must be respected. I like the Santa Anita horses, especially the ones that came in 2nd and 3rd that may pay a sweet price if they win (or place) in the Kentucky Derby. On the downside to Practical Move’s 100 speed figure, he had a perfect trip. But if he too moves far off the 10-1 morning line, he might look good.
For the similar reason, I like Verify at 15-1 morning line—a second in the Blue Grass earning a 99 Beyer, he just lost to Tapit Thrice by a neck. Tapit Thrice is 5-1 on the morning line. (He is a gray, like his dad Tapit.) It is a betting strategy that doesn’t always work, but when horses are that close apart in their last out, and there is a major disparity in payout, I go with the horse with the bigger payout. Obviously, this is usually because the other horse that pays less did much better in the races prior to the last out, but you are not going to get the big payout when victory is a sure thing. That said, if Tapit Thrice pays 12-1 win, he’s a good bet. Tapit Thrice was not stuck in traffic, but he avoided traffic by going super wide in all turns.
If he gets in and I can get the 20-1 morning line, my pick of choice is the Japanese horse Mandarin Hero that was second in the Santa Anita Derby and earned a 100 Beyer speed figure, unless there is a big difference in the “chose five.” My second (and he is in) is Skinner at 20-1. UPDATE: Mandarin Hero is in.
Betting might be crazy this year because an extreme long shot won last year’s Kentucky Derby. For this reason, some horses that really should be 60-1 might get bet down to 30-1 and be a poor value. There is one other thing to remember, the Kentucky Derby is an overcrowded field. Good horses like Looking at Lucky or Mo Donegal have succumbed to the miserable trips you can get in that race.
So, whatever you think might be the best bet for a 14 horse field, you have to throw in this crazy “anything might happen because of the Kentucky Derby traffic jam” element. People who run in the front of the field—the so-called “speed of the race”—might not get the front. Closers run into traffic problems. Horses that would ordinarily have a chance have to take a wide turn into another zip code to have some running room. This randomizes the race and that horse that looked great in a Kentucky Derby prep race might be eight wide in the final turn of the Kentucky Derby. Parenthetically, I believe the Derby field should be limited to fourteen horses, last year’s longshot winner Rich Strike be damned.
Forte is an unusual horse. But a 95 Beyer speed figure is significantly lower than 100 Beyer speed figure (I wonder how Equibase has it), and I don’t want to ignore the lower speed figure on a horse that might pay so little. That said, even Andrew Beyer might ignore it. I am a speed figure freak, and Practical Move has not one, but two 100 Beyer Speed figures—he had a 100 Beyer in the San Felipe. So if Practical Move starts paying more than his 10-1 morning line, I would probably not be able to resist it.
All my recommendations are for even money across the board bets, win, place and show. I also recommend keeping an eye on the place and show pools to see if any horse is paying disproportionately more than his win payout–like I said, Forte may be underbet in these pools.
There is much to like about Forte. He has only 1 loss in his 7 starts. He did earn a 100 Beyer in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but speed figures tend to be big on Breeders’ Cup Day. If he skipped the Kentucky Derby and never raced again, he would have bankrolled $2,409,830. Dividing that number in two to get $1,204,915, not only has no horse in the field earned $1,204,915, only Angle of Empire comes close. ($1,069,375). I am not sure I want to bet 3-1 on Forte who earned a 95 speed figure when I could get a horse out of the Santa Anita Derby who had a 100 speed figure, but Dad (for darn good reason) took previous earnings into consideration for it is a measure of accomplishment accentuated by racing class.
Finally, let’s talk times. The Arkansas Derby is 1 1/8 miles, as is the Florida Derby, as is the Santa Anita Derby. In his very troubled trip in the Florida Derby, Forte did the mile-and-an-eight in 1:49.37. Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire did it in 1:49.68. Practical Move did it in 1:48.69 in his Santa Anita Derby, but his was a less troubled trip. The quicker times are reflected in the Beyer speed figures. UPDATE: Practical Move is scratched
Comparing the two 1 3/16 prep races (the Louisiana Derby and the UAE Derby), Kingsbarns won in a time of 1:57.33. While it was the UAE Derby (and he has to suffer the tiring effect of shipping), Derma Sotogake ran in 1:55 4/5 seconds, a time that usually (but hardly always) wins the Preakness (which is run at that distance.). Some people have said—and I am not saying it is true—that one second equals six lengths. It may be why Derma Sotogake was given a 10-1 morning line—high for the Kentucky Derby when there are superstars in the race.
The beautifully bred MENDELSSOHN (USA) b. H, 2015 {23-b} had a quicker time in the UAE Derby than Derma Sotogake (1:55.18 a new track record), and he finished last in the Kentucky Derby, having advanced no more than 9th place during the race. In the Kentucky Derby, Mendelssohn was “banged around and eased,” and went off at $6.80 on a $2 bet. Mendelssohn was the fourth betting choice that day. Interestingly, Mendelssohn was third in the Jockey Gold Cup, while another UAE Derby winner Thunder Snow finished second. Mendelssohn was third in the Dwyer and second in the Travers—so Mendelssohn might have been a victim of the crowded Kentucky Derby field (and having to ship oversea’s) but was generally a good horse.
Don’t get me wrong. I like Forte at 7-1, and he is a great value at 10-1. He might justify his 3-1 price, but at 3-1, if that is what he goes off as, I am looking at a reason he might lose. Sure, Forte has big earnings, an awesome win record, and had an awful trip in the Florida Derby with dirt in his face and an insane wide turn, but mustered a win nonetheless. But my gut feeling is to bet on a horse that literally will pay 3 times more money and who ran a 99 or 100 Beyer Speed figure last out as opposed to a 95 Beyer, and that would be one of the horses that finished in the top 3 of the Santa Anita Derby or the top two in the Blue Grass Stakes. By the way, look at Forte in the place and show pools and see how he is paying out—people might not bet him there because he is so fancied to win.
How do I recommend betting? I would bet the 99 and 100 Beyer Speed figures last out if any start paying like the lottery. That would be Tapit Thrice or Verifying from the Blue Grass, or Practical Move, Mandarin Hero, or Skinner from the Santa Anita Derby. Of those five horses, whichever pays the most, would be my win-place-show even across the board bet.
In fact, if the payouts are high enough, I might do something I seldom do and my father did not favor—betting two horses in the same race. I generally don’t recommend exacta bets because of the high take out in exotic wagering which is still my advice in this race for that reason, (exotic wagering is anything that is not win, place, or show), but were I to do so, I would consider coupling any of these five horses.
If Forte beats me at 3-1 as he certainly shows the great potential to do, so be it. I will take the lottery ticket payout on any horse that was 1 or 2 in the Blue Grass, or 1, 2 or 3 in the Santa Anita Derby and had the 99 or 100 Beyer speed figure. It’s the Kentucky Derby. Anything could happen.
