Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Race 1
2 – Herb Elias – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Sweet Mo B – He drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Lookatmybuckle – He drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race and he has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
9 – Jersey Turnpike – He was beaten only 2-lenghts vs similar in his only start and he has a trainer who wins 19% of the maiden claiming races that he has a horse running in.
Alternate:
4 – Xavi
3 – El Dandi
Race 2-Female
3 – Center Stage – She finished in the money in seven out of the last eight starts, winning one of the starts and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
6 – Titled Lady – She finished in the money in three out of the last four races, winning one of the starts, she has highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Off Ramp – She finished 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 19% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Rose Palace – She finished 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3,6/2,4,5/2,4,8/1,2,10 – Cost $40.50
Race 3
2 – Leblon – He won his last race at Churchill Downs; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% in the1st race after claiming a horse and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Ministerial – He has won two races out of his last three starts, he has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % jockey and drops in class today.
4- Doctor Nash – He likes Churchill Downs, finishing in the money in 66% of the races and winning 33% of the races and has won his only start at today’s distance.
Longshot:
7 – Royal Act – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Greener Pastures
3 – Leader of Men
Race 4-Female
8 – And One More Time – She is a First-time starter whose Sire wins 20% with 1st time starters, her Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters and 2 stakes winner, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-14.
4 – Fleet Street – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, can improve at the shorter distance and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Reliable Source – She is a First-time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time starters, her Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and 3 stakes winner, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Anakarina – She had an awkward start and finished 5th in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
14 – Empress Julia
Race 5-Female
2 – Satin Blue – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this trainer / jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-3-0) and she has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
1 – Miyako – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, her breeding suggests she will like the grass as her Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters and 2 Turf winners, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of a horse’s 1st on grass race a horse has and she has a bullet 4F workout on Jun-15.
10 – Hue – She is a First-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Whatsrightisright – She showed early speed in her debut race and can improve while trying grass and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
7 – Zen Moment
Race 6-Female
10 – Oh My Mia – She finished 3rd (on AW) in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden-claiming race and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Vino Veritas – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Champagne Surprise – She finished 3rd in the last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.
Longshot:
1 – Streets of Paris – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Prison Bound
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3,6,7,8,10/1,4,5,9/2,4/3,5– Cost $48.00
Race 7
5 – Soaring Bird – He finished in the money in seven in the last eight starts, winning one of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Fan the Fire – He has won two of his last three races, drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 3F workout on Jun-20.
1 – Born Flawless – He got bumped at the start and went to the back of the pack but has won four out of the last six races and drops off claim.
Longshot:
9 – Papa Rocket – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race and drops in class today.
Alternate:
8 – The Queens Jules
6 – Divine Armor
Race 8-Female
2 – Into Love – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Pistol – She has finished in the money in her last three races, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Amaretti – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
8 – Connie K – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has an early foot so her early speed running style helps her chances and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Willow Bend
3 – Charriere
Bet: $14.00 Win: #2 – $10.00 Exacta: 2/4
Race 9-Female
3 – Let’s Duet – She has been knocking on the door finishing in the money in her last five races, running 2nd vs similar in her last race has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Stunningly – She has finished in the money in four of her last five races, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Huntress for Hire – She finished 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 33% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Harbor Springs – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Under Advisement
9 – Amber Cascade
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race
2 – Into Love
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 6/7 w2w – PP: Rail None, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ A Little Under Par
9 – JERSEY TURNPIKE – most upside with 2nd race improvement
4 – XAVI – another that can get past par with 2nd race improvement
6 – SWEET MO B – MSW dropper with a 3f bullet work between races
2 – HERB ELIAS – no clean races yet but well bet in both – a better start might be enough
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
3 – CENTER STAGE – best CD record 5/1-0-3, better start and closer to the front today
2 – ROSE PALACE – better fractions and will be closing and not too far from the pace here
1 – OFF RAMP – consistent performer, class dropper – tends to make a mid move
6 – TITLED LADY – biggest class dropper, but the lone CD run didn’t go so well
Race 3: 1 1/8 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 22% w2w – PP: 1-3 Bonus, 4+ Well Under Par
5 – MINISTERIAL – could be the pacesetter but doesn’t need to be – one of 2 class droppers
2 – LEBLON – should be right on the pace with plenty of LS – doesn’t win back to back
1 – GREENER PASTURES – dropping off the claim – would be about 25% profit on the win
4 – DOCTOR NASH – strong at CD 9/3-0-3, better and more consistent ATB in last
Race 4: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 6/7 w2w – PP: Rail None, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ A Little Under Par
8 – AND ONE MORE TIME – that 46.3 work before going live is eye catching
14 – EMPRESS JULIA – was 3/5 favorite in debut – tough start – not sure outside post helps
12 – LUCY MCGEE – 3/3 first time starter – old fashioned 5f works before debut
3 – ANAKARINA – typical 2nd race improvement would be enough to get the win
Race 5: 5 Furlongs Turf – Bias: 4 Races, 2 w2w – PP: one from posts 2/3, one from 4-7, and two from 8+
10 – HUE – Brad Cox first timer the works are there, the breeding is there
1 – MIYAKO – really like the June 15th work of 4f in 47 and first on grass
3 – SANG – 2nd race improvement is enough with a bullet work between races
2 – SATIN BLUE – upped her speed figure in the last 3
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
3 – PRISON BOUND – most upside potential in only 2nd career run, any improvement
8 – CHAMPAGNE SURPRISE – some ES and gets first Lasix as a 3 yo – maybe best Pedigree
10 – OH MY MIA -MSW dropper, most consistent horse in the race
6 – VINO VERITAS – 3rd in both races, will need to get off to a better start, a couple of nice works
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Stalkers, 13% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Best By a Long Way
5 – SOARING BIRD – last race better than it might look with a little better times
4 – FAN THE FIRE – won at this level and a touch above in the last 2 attempts
1 – BORN FLAWLESS – distance 4/3-0-1, tr Thomas Amoss winner 47% drops off the claim
6 – DIVINE ARMOR – maybe the clock was broken, but that last work of 4f in 46.2? Lights on?
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ Best
5 – AMARETTI – only horse to hit par at this level – maybe 3rd up best of the bunch
2 – INTO LOVE – big race in first race after more than a year off, maybe some regression?
4 – PISTOL – has come close to hitting the numbers necessary to win, strong work between races
7 – BACKYARD MONEY – better fractions at the 6f mark in a 7f race, cut back to 6f helps
Race 9: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 18% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Like Rail
1 – HUNTRESS FOR HIRE – never OTM at CD – nice work before 2nd up
2 – SABRA TUFF – maybe didn’t like slop in first up, a couple of very nice works between races
5 – STUNNINGLY – could be lone E if she can get to the front – 3rd up and last race better than in looks on paper
4 – HARBOR SPRINGS – held her sped longer in her last, better EP in last and capable of big LS
