Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Churchill Downs -5-22-25
Race 1
6 – Dragoon Guard – He has finished in the money in his six career starts, winning four of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Tumbarumba – He has finished in the money in eight races out of his last ten starts, winning one of the starts, drops in class today, he has the best dirt speed among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Classic Car Wash – He ran 3rd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Will Take It – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a good 4F workout on May-10.
Alternate:
3 – Frosted Departure
Race 2
6 – Tough Customer – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Army Hero – He had trouble in his last race and finished poorly so I will throw out that race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
2 – Halfway Tempted – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse competing in and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
7 – Dan d’Oro – He has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse up one class and he has a good 4F workout on May-10.
Alternate:
3 – Hard Spun to Run
$.50 Pick 4: 2,5,7,8/1,3,4,8/7,9/1,4,5 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
1 – Wakuda – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her only start, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Nanina – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer.
3 – My Sweetheart – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey Frankie Dettori and she has a good 4F workout on May-14.
Longshot:a
8 – Munchkin – She was the favorite in her last race and finished 6th but has a trainer who wins 24% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Mother of Pearl
Race 4
9 – Metalhead – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Golden Plate – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Stellar Vino – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
5 – Infinite Luck – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when shipping a horse in to run, drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Standard of Proof
1 – Pierce Elevated
Race 5-Female
5 – Lolo Le Plume – She has finished in the money in her last five starts, finishing 2nd vs similar in her last race and earning the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Antonia’s Flowers – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Ashes and Diamonds – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Churning Berni – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Ez Tree Ates
2 – Bullet Baby
$.50 Pick 4: 1,5/2,3,6,8,9/1,3/3,4,5,8,10 – Cost $50.00
Bet: $20.00 Win & $30.00 Place: 5 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 1/5 – $5.00 Exacta Key Box: 5/1,4,8
Race 6-Female
6 – Always Practical – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Empirical Mischief – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 40% of the races when running a horse in a 1st time claiming race and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Aoraki – She won two races out of her career races and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when a horse he trains uses 2nd time Lasix.
Longshot:
8 – Sweet Bebsi – She drops in class today and has finished in the money in three races on out of the last four starts, winning one.
Alternate:
3 – Commanded
Race 7-Female
1 – Corposo – She has finished in the money in three races out of her five career starts, winning one of the starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Stipulate – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when shipping a horse In to run and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Autumn Rhythm – She won her last race at Keenland and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Islander – She has finished in the money in all three starts at Churchill Downs, winning one of the starts, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a bullet 4F workout on May-07.
Alternate:
6 – Viable
7 – Steampunk
Race 8
10 – Devilish Desire – He drops in class today, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races in the 2nd start after claiming a horse.
3 – Hasten – He won his last race at Churchill Downs and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Global Legend – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
Longshot:
8 – Canavero – He finished 3rd in his last race, his early speed running style helps chances and he likes the distance.
Alternate:
4 – Penrod
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 5th Race – #5 – Lolo Le Plume
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 23% w2w – PP: Outside In with None from the Rail
6 – DRAGOON GUARD – Top TOTAL PACE of a Length – been off a long time – a neck from being 2 for 2 at CD – strong works
2 – WILL TAKE IT – TLRSP#+ 6 – my KD research says Oaklawn form tends to hold at CD
4 – ARRO SMASH – SIM FAV that can boom or bust in 2nd up – like the maintenance work
5 – TUMBARUMBA – ITM 5/5 at CD – ohh, but that last race – maybe didn’t like the mud
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 23% w2w – PP: Outside In with None from the Rail
5 – ARMY HERO – could be lone E – Top TOTAL PACE of a length and Top C-ZONE by a bit
2 – HALFWAY TEMPTED – only YES horse in the race and tied for the biggest class drop
6 – TOUGH CUSTOMER – TLRSP#+6 – the pair of dirt races rate
1 – MI COMPADRE – you have to take the 1 here – all others are Noes – chance to pop in 2nd career race
Race 3: 5 Furlongs Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 1/6 w2w – PP: All From 2-7
3 – MY SWEETHEART – all Noes, 1st timer with 2.92/3 points and bullet works
4 – NANINA – another first timer – Brad Cox with his top Jockey – Florent Geroux
1 – WAKUDA – 2nd start improvement puts her over PAR
2 – CLOWNING AROUND – finished 6th of 12 in debut, but the first three came back to win their next races – key race for sure
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 23% w2w – PP: Outside In with None from the Rail
9 – METALHEAD – Oh for 2 at CD – but his numbers at the CD are as high as any and those to were at much higher levels
7 – GOLDEN PLATE – better EP in last and stands to have more late race energy in 2nd up
8 – STELLAR VINO – ITM 4/4 at the distance and most consistent
1 – PIERCE ELEVATED – just broke maiden with tie for TLRSP# – resume says 2nd up should look like the last one
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 4/16 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Almost Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
5 – LOLO LE PLUME – SIM FAV – TOP TOTAL PACE 1 ½ Lengths – 1 of 2 yes horses
8 – CHURNING BERNI – the other YES horse – classic 3rd up and tends to make 1 big move – needs to timed right
1 – ANTONIA’S FLOWERS – stinky rail – boom or bust in third career start
3 – EZ TREE ATES – tough call over the 4 – but has better CD numbers and ranks higher in most Smart Sheet stats
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Outside In
2 – AORAKI – only YES horse – strong chance to lead – broke Maiden in Debut at CD
10 – SWEET NOTE – another that drilled the comp in her debut at CD – followed it up with a similar effort – strong CD works for 1st up since early March
6 – ALWAYS PRACTICAL – better EP in her last – most LS by a length – Top TOTAL PACE
9 – EMPIRICAL MISCHIEF – speed on the outside – and tied for Top C-Zone
Race 7: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 23% w2w – PP: Outside In with None from the Rail
5 – ISLANDER – any of his last three races would be strong enough to compete for the W
2 – AUTUMN RHYTHM – out front catch be if you can with Top TOTAL PACE rank
1 – CORPOSO – only YES horse – has to be in your picks despite no rail winners
7 – STEAMPUNK – strongest in race advantage of more than a length LS –
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Outside In
4 – PENROD – SIM FAV – Top TOTAL PACE and by far Top PAR+
10 – DEVILISH DESIRE – better EP and FRACTIONS in last – small drop
5 – GLOBAL LEGEND – most upside in the race with the 10 and biggest class drop
