Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Churchill – 9-18-2024
Race 1
4 – All West – He finished 3rd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Burninhunkoflove – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the claiming races he has a horse running in, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Good Juju – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
6 – Santa Cruiser – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and his early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #2,4,6,7
Race 2
7 – Tanmancan – He ran 2nd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Brazen Boy – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on Sep-09.
2 – Air Cav – He is trained by Brad Cox and ridden by jockey Tyler Gaffalione.
Longshot:
4 – Protege – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
8 – Arthur
1 – Jammin Justice
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6,7/3,4/1,2,3,8/4,5,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
3 – Sixwillberich – He has won two races out of the last three starts and he has high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the claiming races he has a horse running in.
4 – Summer in Aiken – He won his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Mad Adam – He ran 2nd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Curlins Incharge – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Iceatude
6- Long Crow
Race 4
8 – Six Kings – He has a large drop-in class today, he has high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-12.
2 – Moving to Kentucky – He drops in class today, he has high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races in dirt starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Vincita – He drops in class today; he can improve while returning to dirt and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Photo Op – His has high % winning trainer who wins 100% of the races when taking a horse Up 2+ classes and he can improve in 2nd start since layoff.
Alternate:
10 – Ultimate Strike
Race 5
4 – El Gunner – He has finished in the money in six of his six career starts, winning one of the races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Sound Doctrine – He has an early foot so his early speed running style helps his chances, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Midnight Ambition – He has high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races in claiming races.
Longshot:
3 – Quarrymen – He drops in class today; he has a trainer who wins 33% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and can improve while returning to a sprint.
Alternate:
2 – Stunnem
Bet: $10.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #4 – $5.00 Exacta: #4/3,5,7 – $2.00 DD: 4/ALL
$.50 Pick 3: #4/2,3,4,6/1,2,3,6
Race 6
4 – Global Sensation – He has won the last three races in a row earning the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Pure Panic – He has finished in the money in five of his last eight starts, winning two of the races and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Got Thunder – He won his last race and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – Timeless Bounty – He ran 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Beyond Best
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,4,5,6/1,2,3,6/3/1,2,8,9,11 – Cost $50.00
Race 7 -Female
1 – Nursekringledances – She ran 2nd (on Turf) in her last race at Kentucky Downs and returning to dirt may be a plus.
2 – Sister Kisses – She ran 2nd in her last two race and she has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Little Blaze – She likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 57% of the races, winning 14% of the races, the distance will not be a problem finishing in the money in 75% of the races, winning 25% of the races.
Longshot:
3 – Sombra Dorada – She has finished in the money in two of her three career starts, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Crazy Cami
7 – Idalou
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,2,3,6
Race 8
3 – Finster – He was off for a year after winning his debut race and won his second career race upon his return, has a high % winning jockey and a bullet 4F workout on Sep-14.
10 – Save the Trees – He has won three races out of his four career starts, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Billal – He ran 2nd in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a bullet 4F workout on Sep-05.
Longshot:
5 – Mr Skylight – He was beaten only 1-1/2 lengths in his last start and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Barksdale
Bet: $6.00 Win & $8.00 Place: #3
Race 9
1 – Golden Ice – He finished in 3rd by closing at 6-1/2 furlongs in his debut race and now extends out to a mile which will be a plus.
9 – Optical – He ran 4th in his last race after having trouble during the race but has the best Prime Power: 113.6 (1st).
11 – Reb – He ran 3rd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
2 – Desperate Proposal – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 5 starters and 1 stakes winner, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Sep-13.
Alternate:
8 – G. Erik
10 – Ky Do Declare
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 5th Race – #4 – El Gunner
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Outside In with 2/3 Getting a Bump
6 – SANTA CRUISER – won two back at CD and at this level
7 – SIR OLLIE – speed and fade – seems to be the case, especially at the distance 5/1-04
2 – GOOD JUJU
4 – ALL WEST
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Outside In with 2/3 Getting a Bump
4 – PROTÉGÉ – lone race art CD was the best – comes back in 3rd up
7 – TANMANCAN – debut race was close – needs to improve off last, but only 3rd start and finally healthy?
2 – AIR CAV – lowest level of career – raced in a G1 and 3 – bullet work between races
6 – BRAZEN BOY – walking up the ladder and missed by just a length at this level last out – 3rd up
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 18% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, 2/3 dinged a little, 8+ Been Bad
5 – CURLINS INCHARGE – won two in a row, run back to MCL race two back at CD would be good enough versus this
8 – ICEATUDE – will be coming at the end with strong LP – lowest level of career
7 – MAD ADAM – probably most consistent performer in the group – boom or bust in 2nd up after more than a year off – a pair of maintenance works between starts
2 – KOLOMIO – most back class, maybe finds some of it going back to dirt
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 18% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, 2/3 dinged a little, 8+ Been Bad
8 – SIX KINGS –the biggest class dropper – bullet work between races – 3rd up
2 – MOVING TO KENTUCKY – maybe most upside making only his 3rd start with some ES
3 – VINCITA – has shown the ability to get past par for this spot
10 – ULTIMATE STRIKE
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Inside Out, 8+ Bad
7 – SOUND DOCTRINE – speed and fade in 1st up – work between, more stamina today
6 – PRINTS MONEY – spent a lot of money on this horse – fire sale or trying to get some back?
3 – QUARRYMEN – horse has back class – most recent work hinting it might be coming back to form
1 – FORE FLAG – west coast shipper with speed on the rail – we’ll see
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 17% w2w – PP: Outside In, Rail Better than 2/3
4 – GLOBAL SENSATION – any of the last 3 would do – won both at 7f – plenty of works since last run on July 15th
6 – PURE PANIC – consistent performer, last race better than it looks with improved 2/4 pace -drops
8 – SOLIDIFY – if the 4/6 burn each other out front – should have the LS to chase them down
7 – TALLAHATCHIEBRIDGE – tough call over the 2 – but has CD experience, most upside
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Outside In with 2/3 Getting a Bump
6 – LITTLE BLAZE – not sure what the KD run was all about – dangerous on the lead – chance today
3 – SOMBRA DORADA – MSW win at CD would be enough – decent works
7 – IDALOU – last race was extremely sharp – resume says 2nd up the same or a little better
2 – SISTER KISSES – tough call over the 5, but been dancing with better and stronger at the distance
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Outside In with 2/3 Getting a Bump
10 – SAVE THE TREES – winner of 3 of 4 races – will be closing and showed elite LS in last
7 – BILLAL – most upside in the race – TLRSP#+4
5 – MR SKYLIGHT – hasn’t raced at CD yet, but the workouts say he might like the track
6 – MARKET STREET –
Race 9: 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed, 16% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 4-7 Best
8 – G. ERIK – room for a lot of upside in 2nd up
2 – DESPERATE PROPOSAL – best of the 1st timers, IMO – fastest works, breeding
10 – KY DO DECLARE – another with room to be better in 2nd career start
6 – IL MARCHESSE – back bullet at CD training track says some talent is there
