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Throw Back to Sha Tin for some synthetic and turf racing for Tom and Rich for this week’s Foreign Friday.
Sha Tin Racecourse (Free Sha Tin Past Performances)
Race 6: MIDDLE HANDICAP
Race 7: THE PENINSULA GOLDEN JUBILEE CHALLENGE CUP
Race 8: MODY HANDICAP
Race 9: NATHAN HANDICAP
Race 10: SALISBURY HANDICAP
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track of the Day: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Free Sha Tin Picks
22 to 1 Tom’s Sha Tin Tips and Comments
RACE 6
6 – Forever Folks
This horse doesn’t get off to a good start but can finish. He ran an even effort last time, running sixth. He had no clear run turn for home. He’s won twice on the all-weather and needs a good trip to win.
13 – On The Lash
He had a tough trip two starts back. He sat up front in second from a wide position and didn’t finish. In the last race, he settled in midpack and finished good to run fifth. The last two games were much better than the previous three races when he ran twelfth, eleventh, and fourteenth. They added a tongue tie in the previous two races.
10 – Never Peter Out
He’s run twice on the all-weather, won one, and ran third in the other race. He comes with his run from midpack in both his last two races and the winning effort. He closed firmly, and in the previous race, he broke out poorly, raced wide, and was moved, turning for home, but he just didn’t get the job done.
RACE 7
12 – Sing Dragon
His last two races have been good after having issues with an awkward start or being blocked along the rail. He ran fifth in one, coming from twelfth on the turn and a fourth, making good progress. These two races were at Happy Valley, and he returns to the all-weather with a record of four starts and three wins. He likes the all-weather track.
7 – Capital Delight
He is the race veteran on the all-weather with eight starts, three wins, two seconds, one third. Two races back, coming from tenth place early in the race. His last time, he was behind the leaders and saved ground but didn’t finish in the final 100m. Back to all-weather, and let’s see if he returns to form.
4 – Bundle of Charm
In his last race, he was dropped back, went wide on the turn, and finished on even terms, running ninth. He returns to the all-weather with a record of three starts and two wins. All his wins are at Sha Tin. He will have to make an excellent trip to have a chance. There is pace in the race to run at.
RACE 8
6 – Fighting Machine
For his first race on the all-weather, he had an outside post position and raced in the rear before going wide and making up ground. He got up for second place. Switch to the top jockey at the track.
1 – Supreme Agility
His only effort on the all-weather, he ran third going along the rail. He was under pressure to go and improved enough. In his last race, he needed more room at the end of the race to do no better than fifth.
8 – Must Go
He’s run second in his last two races on the all-weather. Coming in off the layoff, he did not have much fading in those races. The seconds are good, but he has won on the all-weather twice. I take him to go again.
RACE 9
5 – Master Of All
He has been running very well in his last races, either first or second. He has never been out of the money at this distance and comes into the race off a winning run near then on the lead, holding off the challengers. He finished well to run second in the previous start, and that’s the way he started before. Same level, same distance, why not win again?
2 – Run Ran Run
His runs in Hong Kong have been less than brilliant in five starts, but he is showing signs of being a bit closer to the pace, like in the last run. He had no clear running in the middle of the race, and he didn’t finish in the end. All the races have big odds, but I give him a shot.
1 – Mighty Steed
He ran fourth last time out, kept on well at the end, and just missed by a neck. His best finish in Hong Kong was a third with the way outside post position, sat in the back, and made one run. He appears to be making progress in the past three races, and today, he will be in the money.
RACE 10
8 – Geneva
He won his last two races, coming from behind and finishing the last 50m. He’s running in the money in all his races. He can race from the rear, mid-pack, or close to the leaders and make good progress. He needs cover, so dropping in and running from the rear makes the most sense. The jockey change is interesting; first time up in Zach Purton instead of Hugh Bowman. The trainer wants to win again. Favorite.
1 – Gracious Express
His last win was in a very slow-paced race in May, but the norm for him is in slower-paced races. He hit the turn the previous time but made some progress to run fourth but didn’t threaten. He will sit behind the pace and get the favorable trip to run in the money this time. The outside position will help this horse.
4 – Steps Ahead
A winner of his last two races, both at this distance, he has shown that he hits the finish line with good energy when asked to go. Five races are never out of the money; this is his second race at the level, and he may again get up in time for the win, but I think the field is better this time. He will hang on to a placing.
Rich’s Sha Tin Rank and Analysis
Race 6: MIDDLE HANDICAP – 2:35 am ET
1 – NORTHERN BEAST – Zac Purton, likes running a mile – AW is the only question
8 – RELIABLE PROFIT – won the last two mile runs on AW at Sha Tin, 2nd in the one before that
10 – NEVER PETER OUT – both AW runs were solid, 3rd in last better than it looks, faster by 1.5 seconds
7 – ENSHINE – we’ll take a shot, sometimes horses really pop in 2nd career start
Race 7: THE PENINSULA GOLDEN JUBILEE CHALLENGE CUP – 3:05 am ET
11 – FULL CREDIT – out front and clear speed, questions are AW and rise in class
12 -SING DRAGON – winner 3 of 4 on AW and 2 of 12 on any other – horse for the synthetic course
7 – CAPITAL DELIGHT – another that likes the AW surface 8/3-2-1 – will close
3 – TOMODACHI KOKOROE – Zac Purton rides here – first on synthetic – maybe come to life
Race 8: MODY HANDICAP – 3:40 am ET
6 – FIGHTING MACHINE – Zac Purton – but what got me was the comment in the program – “Could easily blow them away in the dying stages.”
8 – MUST GO – closer and getting extra distance after running out track at 6 furlongs
5 – TALENTS AMBITION – likely favorite – won the last time he ran 1 mile on AW at Sha Tin
9 – YOUNG BRILLIANT – another flyer taking up the 4th spot – has a 1 mile win on Sha Tin AW too
Race 9: NATHAN HANDICAP – 4:15 am ET
5 – MASTER OF ALL – never off the board in 6 at the distance 6/3-2-1 – will be forward
7 – FLYING AKEED – really not impressed with any of the other experienced horses – might as well give the first timer a chance
6 – DRAGON JOY – improved enough in 2nd up that if he can do the same in the 3rd up – could win
12 – SUNDAY’S SERENADE – finally healthy horse? First time in this 4 yo’s five race career making two starts in a row – last might have been good enough to beat these.
Race 10: SALISBURY HANDICAP – 4:50 am ET
6 – SPANISH FLAME – going to take a major flyer – was running at much higher levels including competitive group races before something obviously went wrong – if he is remotely close to that level
4 – STEPS AHEAD – sits right off the pace and closes it out
3 – MY WISH – won at this level last out on Sha Tin grass – my concern is he is speed and there is plenty of it in here – maybe has to work too hard
8 – GENEVA – started my picks with Zac Purton – ending them with Zac and a horse that’s ITM 6/6 on good footing – 6/2-2-2
