Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s Parlay of the Day
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Presque Isle Downs
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Hidden Cache – He has finished in the money in all his four career races, finishing 3rd vs similar in last race at PARX Racing and his early speed running style is a plus.
4 – My three butterflies – He switches to a high % winning jockey, has a trainer who wins 21% of the races with 1st time Lasix and returning to a sprint will help.
3 – Rain Lilly – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Bow to the queen – He is a first-time starter; has a trainer whose horses wins 17% of the races in their debut maiden-special-weight race and he has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-16.
Alternate:
5 – Gold Exchange
6 – Elegantdream
Race 2
3 – Debbie’s Surprise – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-2-0).
2 – Cabra Chica – She has the highest last race speed rating; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a trainer who wins 21% of the races in the second race after claiming a horse.
7 – Valuable Breigh – She has lots of early speed, a shorter distance offers hope for improvement, and she has a good 4F workout on Sep-21.
1 – Lady Bernadette – She finished last in her last race after coming into the stretch wide and I will ignore that race. The rail post is winning at 19% clip, she has a jockey change and has a good workout on Jan-13.
Alternate:
6 – Powwa of Love
4 – Joy’s Pride
Race 3
1 – Magic Wizard – He has finished in the money in seven out of nine races on the turf and has finished in the money in five out of five starts at today’s distance.
4 – Bustin Up – His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a horse back from 46-90 days away.
2 – Sensible Jim – He drops in class today and switches to a high% winning trainer.
6 – Clear Cut – He drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
5 – Lt’s Jacknthebox
7 – D’lucci Boy
Race 4
3 – Manuka Bobby – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-1-0).
4 – Dang nabbit – He finished 3rd in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
7 – Mr. Tuttle – His Prime Power is 113.6 (1st) and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
9 – Wheres the passion – He ran 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and a trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races he has a horse entered in.
Alternate:
6 – Singinthruthestorm
2 – Cape Hedge
Race 5
4 – Grit’n’grind – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% when dropping a horse down 2+ classes – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (18 9-1-3).
3 – Royal Coup – He ran 2nd in his last race and has a High % winning trainer who wins 37% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
1 – Arrivederci – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and the rail post is winning at 18% clip.
5 – Political – He drops in class today And has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
2 – Wagon Boss
Race 6
7 – Murricane – He won his last race at Monmouth Park after being off almost a year and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-1-0).
4 – Kodapendent – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Showing Off – He won his last race and has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Scoop Dawg – The rail post is winning at 18% clip ñ Finished 3rd vs similar in last race
Alternate:
6 – Exxtop
Race 7
7 – Dizzy Gillespie – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at Aqueduct and has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Passage of Lines – He likes the track and distance, switches to a high % winning trainer and a high % winning jockey.
4 – Fox Red – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, has a high % winning jockey and a trainer who wins 21% of the starts in claiming races.
3 – Golden Spoke – He likes the track finishing in the money in 61% of the time and winning 15% of the starts and performs well at the distance.
Alternate:
5 – Crea’s Bklyn Law
2 – Saponara
Race 8
4 – Classy Miss – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Melitza – She won her last race at Penn National and has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7days has this record (14 5-2-1) and a good 4F workout on Aug-24.
10 – Appreciate – She won her last race at Monmouth Park; her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Lady Lana – She switches to a high % winning jockey and a trainer who wins 27% when bringing a horse back after 90+ days away.
Alternate:
8 – Rose Legacy
Race 9
5 – Evey’s Candy – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-2-0).
1 – V Mart – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and should improve at the shorter distance.
6 – Ferrari Kid – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and should improve while returning to dirt.
3 – Belt Parkway –His early speed running style helps his chances, should improve at the shorter distance and has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-15.
Alternate:
4 – Tiempo Perfecto
2 – Little J P
Race 10
4 – The goddess of snakes – She finished 3rd in her last race after winning the two previous races at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and jockey, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (18 9-1-3).
1 – Plane Drunk – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and her trainer in the last 14 days has this record (28 10-5-5).
6 – Seamia laugh – She finished 2nd in her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Billieanne- She ran 2nd in last race.
Alternate:
7 – Excitable Lady
Race 11
8 – Healy’s Hope – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning jockey and a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-1).
2 – High Velocity– He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race at PRAX Racing, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and trainer who wins 20% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
7 – Expensive – He won his last race at Penn National and likes the distance.
12 – Crafty Jack – He has a high % winning jockey and performs well at today’s distance.
Alternate:
5 – Knockout Kick
3 – Victor’s Dynasty
Rich’s Ranks
Parx Race 1: 6 Furlongs
2 – HIDDEN CACHE – Parx 4/0-3-1, maybe improves in 2nd off the bench
3 – RAIN LILLY – major performance bump in last with 1st Lasix, tr Bernard Houghton 23% second Lasix versus 17% overall
1 – BOWTOTHEQUEEN – 1st timer with double bullet and go, not a fan of Penn to Parx, but we don’t know what we don’t know
4 – MYTHREEBUTTERFLIES – been off since January, has some 2f pop, 1st Lasix, works are uninspiring
Parx Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs
3 – DEBBIE’S SURPRISE – not a fa4n of MCL risers, but on the upswing, should contest for the lead
2 – CABRA CHICA – left arrow horse, top LP and has top EP/LP combo, track dropper
7 – VALUABLE BREIGH – could sit right off the lead and take over after the ½, not much to chase in a field with more closers than speed horses
1 – LADY BERNADETTE – last was UGLY, but moves to the rail that’s been on fire and should compete for the lead
Parx Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf, 10 races, 6 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: rail bias, 2-7 better than par, 8+ major penalty
6 – CLEAR CUT – LS – left arrow horse, lone PC, top EP/LP combo, TLRSP# and drops
4 – BUSTIN UP – another left arrow horse, going to be big favorite NYRA track dropper, improved 2/4f last out
1 – MAGIC WIZARD – can’t ignore distance 5/0-2-3 or turf 9/0-3-4, rail has a notable bias
7 – D’LUCCI BOY – 1st timer gets top jockey in Ruben Silvera, got to believe the horse is live
Race 4: 7 Furlongs
4 – DANGNABBIT – better ATB in last, tie for TLRSP#, cutting back in distance helps
9 – WHERESTHEPASSION – the other to tie for TLRSP#, Parx 11/0-3-4, lone PC with top LP#
7 – MR. TUTTLE – running at his lowest level since June, 2x at similar level, 2nd both time by 1 ¼ and ¾ lengths
8 – POP POP SUSI – has +EP at 2/4 furlongs, at his best the advantage goes up, post is a negative, but pacesetters winning at 35% last 30-days
Race 5: 1 Mile 70 Yards
3 – ROYAL COUP – missed as the favorite at Monmouth in his last, tr Penny Pearce rebounded 10/27, better fractions in last
4 – GRIT’N’GRIND – dropping multiple classed for Jamie Ness, 33% winner, 3rd off layoff could be better, can’t ignore Ness/Silvera combo
1 – ARRIVEDERCI – tough call over the 2, both are left arrow horses, but 2 blew a tire in the last two effort and 1 showed better late in his last
2 – WAGON BOSS – should challenge the one for the lead, can he keep the air in the tires?
Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards
4 – KODAPENDENT – better ATB, TLRSP#, +LP edge, distance 8/2-1-3, 7better fractions last out
7 – MURRICANE – increased speed number in both races after debut, much better fractions in last, moved closer to the front in last, maintenance work between races expecting more today
5 – SHOWING OFF – went w2w in last at Delaware, his other win was from 7 off the lead, like the versatility
2 – MIDLANER – left arrow horse with a +4 edge and best EP/LP combo with the 3 out
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs
4 – FOX RED – left arrow horse, has +2/4f edge, best Parx #s by a long way
6 – PASSAGE OF LINES – top EP/LP combo in the field, 1st off the claim tr Michael Pino 20% winner
7 – DIZZY GILLESPIE – TLRSP#, could build on it in 2nd off the bench, much better early in last
5 – CREA’S BKLYN LAW – 2nd try at Parx after track dropping, fractions were much better in last, another 2nd off the layoff get better candidate
Race 8: 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf, 10 races, 6 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: rail bias, 2-7 better than par, 8+ major penalty
4 – CLASSY MISS – lone EP horse, won two in a row and crushed the last one, flipping to turf where she has two 2nds in two races at FG – surface switch should be no problema
9 – MELITZA – lone PC horse, two wins in three turf routes, no wins in 6 at sprints or other surface
10 – APPRECIATE – left arrow horse, won it’s last with major improvement with Paco Lopez riding, he returns for the 2nd go around
5 – LADY LANA – been on grass 5/0-2-2, been on break sine late June, has run well in 2/3 last fresh starts, bullet and go
Race 9: 6 Furlongs
3 – BELT PARKWAY – has a +4f EP edge, tried 200K NGSTK in last on Toga mud, comes back to Parx, two very fast works and a bullet
5 – EVEY’S CANDY – lost handily to the 3 in their debuts, won the next with major bump in 2/4f #s, top LP and +EP/LP combo
1 – V MART – easy debut win at Toga, tried $200K NGSTK in race two, run back to the debut and it’s an EZ win
2 – LITTLE J P – tough call for this spot, but let’s take the horse that should be forwardly placed
Race 10: 6 Furlongs
4 – THEGODDESSOFSNAKES – EP horse sitting behind a bunch of speed, should get a great trip, Silvera on this one for Ness and not the 1 tells you all you need to know
2 – SHESASUPERFREAK – benefits from the 5 scratching, could be on the lead with much better fractions in last
1 – PLANE DRUNK – could compete for the lead, has top LP and EP/LP combo, but Parx 4/1-0-0
8 – BILLIEANNE – another horse that should get a great trip, lone PC gets a weight break, classic third off the bench, was the best of 3 in last 3 race cycle
Race 11: 6 Furlongs – wide open race
2 – HIGH VELOCITY – just missed as BTN FAV in last, similar fractions at 7f vs 6f, cut back helps
11 – SHACKLE CAT – really want to rank higher, but these outside posts at the distance, not so good
8 – HEALY’S HOPE – complete pace flyer here because he doesn’t rank well, but has a ++ LP edge in a race with a ton of early speed, Tom horse, win, nah, ITM yeah, he has a chance
6 – FIRST NAVY ADMIRAL – benefits from the 5 scratching, same times at 7f as 5 1/2
Parx Post Position, Past Bias and Race Shape Worksheet 9-27-2022
