Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
It’s a big weekend of Irish racing at The Curragh Racecourse with the 2000 and 1000 Guineas. Where else would you expect Tom and Rich to go?
Curragh Racecourse (Free Curragh Past Performances Saturday, Sunday – coming)
Saturday, May 27
Race 2 – GAIN Marble Hill Stakes
Race 3 – Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes
Race 5 – Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas
Sunday, May 28
Race 3 – Tattersalls Gold Cup
Race 4 – Lanwades Stud Stakes
Race 5 – Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas
Race 6 – Heider Family Stables Gallinule Stakes
Curragh Picks and Commentary
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Saturday, May 27
Race 2 – 1:55
GAIN Marble Hill Stakes (Group 3) (2yo) 6f
5 – Nache Magica – Draw 1
Won first start at Cork after dwelt at the start, sat in the rear of the field and went by everyone.
The comment was “impressive.”
The inside draw is good to even with the gate set at the center of the race course
The trainer P Twomey is doing very well this season with 27% strike rate and the 2yo he has sent out are winning at a rate of 33% on the turf with runners winning from at total of 5 with a positive ROI.
2 – Democracy – Draw 5
Won first start over the heavy going at the 6-furlong distance.
Was with the leaders throughout the race, and when challenged he went on to win. Went off the favorite.
Ryan Moore gets the call for Aiden O’Brien, and he has eyes on Royal Ascot for both his horses in this field.
4 – His Majesty – Draw 6
Won first start going 5 furlongs by only 3/4L over Valiant Force who returns to race here too but he had a more adventuresome trip.
Always with the leaders, he ran very “greenly” and was on the far side of the group and went left very badly in the last 2 furlongs.
The difference in the races for the others and this horse and Valiant Force is this was a listed race.
Aiden O’Brien trained.
Race 3 – 2:30
Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes (Group 2) (4yo+) 6f
4 – Garrus – Draw 8
Won last time out at Newmarket by a head in group 3 at 6 furlongs.
Went off a good odds at 9-1and beat Commanche Falls and the favorite Creative Force.
His first start was in Saudi Arabia and at not great effort vs some very good horses including Bathrat Leon (Japan) and Casa Creed (USA)/ Toss.
in-form sprinter who appears ready again to beat this bunch.
6 – Twilight Jet – Draw 5
Hasn’t raced since July 2022 in group 1 race and something went wrong.
He won first start last season in group 3 at Naas at 6 furlong by 3 lengths.
His final start in 2021 was in the Breeders Cup at Del Mar with an average effort.
He will be the leader here and races fresh with top jockey Colin Keane for the first time.
Should get a good price here.
7 – Ano Syra – Draw 6
First start since September 2022 but good record at the Curragh with 4 starts 2 wins 1 second and has beaten the boys before.
Won her first start last season at Naas at 6 furlongs, and she ran well the rest of the season with 3 wins 1 second, and 3 fourths.
She prefers the good going but has won over the yielding going.
Take a shot here with a record at the Curragh and likes the good going.
Race 5 – 3:40
Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) (3yo) 1m
4 – Galeron – Draw 8
Had a great deal of trouble at the break in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket went off at 150-1 and ran a creditable 4th.
First start of the year, a good third at Newcastle on the all-weather.
He’s won over this track as a 2yo
I think he will continue to improve off the last race and will win here but not at 150-1.
8 – Paddington – Draw 3
Winner of last 3 races including 2 at the Curragh.
Should be right with the leaders from the start and will finish strongly again.
Jumps up in class from listed race but this is Ryan Moore and Aiden O’Brien and it’s the Curragh.
7 – Hi Royal – Draw 2
A novice winner at Ayr and then last race, he went off at 125-1 and ran second to Chaldean behind 1 ¾ lengths put in a game run from start to finish just not enough to hold off the winner.
He did have a bit of trouble in the race hanging left but still enough to run second.
Straight him up and he could win this race.
Sunday, May 28
Race 3 – 2:45
Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1) (4yo+) 1m2½f
5 – Vadeni – Draw 6
First start was an average effort running third at ParisLongchamp.
Raced towards the rear of the field and never looked comfortable.
One of the top 3yo in Europe last season and beat older horses a Sandown.
Time off then an average prep race before running second the Arc.
If he is in good form today, he wins going away.
1 – Bay Bridge – Draw 1
Ran a disappointing 3rd in first start of the season at ParisLongchamp in group 1 on very soft going.
Stayed up front, move to second but didn’t’ have anything left to move up.
Beat Adayar in final start of the season at Ascot in October.
Is this a classic case of needing a start?
2 – Lafayette – Draw 4
In 3 starts this season, he has run in the money in all races, and they were all at the Curragh.
He’s been running on the soft to heavy going but has wins on good to firm going but overall, better on the soft going.
I am going with the form on this horse and pick him to make another in the money finish.
Race 4 – 3:15
Lanwades Stud Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (4yo+) 1m
3 – Insinuendo – Draw 6
Won the first start of the season going 1 mile in group 3 race
Then tried 1 ¼ in group 2 and ran 4th.
With a record of 4 starts 3 wins 1 second at 1 mile, why do you run this horse at any other distance than 1 mile?
Ok, she would be going 1 ¼ once in a group 3 in her third start of her career.
She won on the good going twice, so it’s hard for me to not put her as my top choice.
1 – Goldana – Draw 1
Her seasonal debut was at the Curragh going 7F and won with authority for her first start in Ireland beating the males.
She won her final start last year in Germany over the heavy going.
She’s unproven in group company before her win last out in a group 3.
If she runs back to that race going this distance, she will be very tough to beat.
4 – Jumbly – Draw 3
This is her seasonal debut after last season of only 4 races.
She ran second last year in her first start then ran 2 average races and her final. Start won at Ascot in July.
Transfers to new trainer and first start here.
She may surprise against this bunch with a better than average effort.
Race 5 – 3:50
Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas (Group 1) (3yo) 1m
7 – Meditate – Draw 2
The best way to describe her first race of the season is even.
Racing on the far side, she beat 14 horses but didn’t do any special.
But at Keeneland in the Breeder’s Cup, she was special and won rather easily.
Her worst run was her last race, I think she will run a better race second out.
Good going only helps her chances.
1 – Aspen Grove – Draw 10
She broke her maiden as a 2yo in a group 3 race after running 2 poor efforts in maiden races at the Curragh.
Her group 3 run was at the Curragh over the good going.
They stepped her up to group 1 company at ParisLongchamp and showed little.
First start of the season was at Leopardtowns running 3rd in group 3 race.
In that last race, she raced wide and just missed running third.
Could win? Maybe.
9 – Tarawa – Draw 5
Nice run last out running 3rd at Leopardstown in group 3.
Interesting race for her, good start up with the leaders then was dropped back to the rear and made one run.
She’s only raced 3 times with only a maiden win.
Learning experience in last race. Put her in the money.
Race 6 – 4:25
Heider Family Stables Gallinule Stakes (Group 3) (3yo) 1m2f
4 – Pivotal Trigger – Draw 4
First start of the season after only a maiden win last season.
But after that win, she was sent to ParisLongchamp to run third in a group 3 at 1 mile.
Then moved up to a group 1 at 7F and ran last.
Why pick?
Her mom was a group 1 winner and performed very at distance and against the likes of Yeats.
The siblings have also done well going today’s distance to 2 miles on the flats and 2 jumpers running too.
Take maturity into account and the the hands of a top trainer and lets see if she can run her best race here.
Good going maybe just what she wants too.
2 – Kingswood – Draw 2
Won last race a maiden event at 10F.
Her other races were ok but shorter distances.
Breeding says she wants more distance to be her best and off her maiden effort, I will put in the money in this race.
1 – Drumroll – Draw 6
Two races at 1 mile with a win and a second to stablemate Paddington who ran in the Guineas race on Saturday.
Aiden O’Brien must feel that she wants more ground to run on to get her group win.
Breeding says that’s possible with winners being from 6F to 1 ¼.
He could have run her in the Guineas so we will see if this was the right decision.
Rich’s Ranks
Saturday:
Race 2: GAIN Marble Hill Stakes – 8:55 am eastern
2 – DEMOCRACY – won his debut at the even money favorite at the Curragh
5 – NOCHE MAGICA – got off to a slow start but still won debut with ease and a good 5f time
4 – HIS MAJESTY – also won his debut and was well bet
1 – BUYIN BUYIN – 5f time on AW would be great if he can turn in the same effort on turf
Race 3: Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes – 9:30 am eastern
5 – MOSS TUCKER – good record on a good surface, ran faster fractions last out
4 – GARRUS – won first up and resume suggests a better race in round two off the bench
7 – ANO SYRO – appears to like the Curragh 4/2-1-0, has run well on good and off the break
6 – TWILIGHT JET – the talent is there but Curragh 3/0-0-0 and distance 7/0-0-1
Race 5: Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas – 10:40 am eastern
9 – PROUD AND REGAL – has a GI win, fared well in 2 on a good surface, should be better 2nd up
7 – HO ROYAL – classic 3rd after a layoff and one that appears to prefer firmer footing,
4 – CAIRO – is a head from being unbeaten in his three dirt turf races
8 – PADDINGTON – winner of three in a row – question is the lone good track trip didn’t go well
Sunday:
Race 3: Tattersalls Gold Cup – 9:45 am eastern
5 – VADENI – win his last three on a good surface
1 – BAY BRIDGE – ITM 8/9 on the grass with $1.3 million in winnings
3 – LUXENBOURG – won 2 of 3 at the Curragh and could show more in round two off the sidelines
4 – PIZ BADILE – Curragh 2/0-1-1, let’s see if he can improve in 2nd up
Race 4: Lanwades Stud Stakes – 10:15 am eastern
5 – JUST BEAUTIFUL – really appears to like a good surface and is nearly a $900k horse
2 – HONEY GIRL – horse for the course? 2/2 at Curragh, no wins in 8 elsewhere
1 – GOLDANA – maybe underestimated as a German shipper, but did win last out in a G3 at Curragh
4 – JUMBLY – a $1.6 million horse, clearly the breeding is there, tends to run big or bad
Race 5: Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas – 10:50 am eastern
7 – MEDITATE – unbeaten in four on a good track, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
8 – TAHIYRA – did beat the top pick when they met, but the track was soft
6 – JACKIE OH – looks like she is a miler, the question is footing, hope she’ll be better on good footing and first two were on heavy
9 – TARAWA – looks like she will be rolling late, might need more than a mile, never made it two in a row, so this will be first 2nd up effort
Race 6: Heider Family Stables Gallinule Stakes – 11:25 am eastern
1 – DRUMROLL – only horse to finish in from of him in two races is PADDINGTON who runs in Saturday’s Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas and won three in a row
5 – SAVE YOUR LOVE – only finished a length behind DRUMROLL two back, win afterwards and could like better footing in 3rd up
2- KINGSWOOD – won last out at the distance, first after a layoff, and showed more in only other 2nd start off the bench
4 – PIVOTAL TRIGGER – well thought enough of by the morning line maker to be 2nd choice
