Belmont at Aqueduct Picks Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Belmont at Aqueduct Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Race 1-Female
2 – Blenheim Baby – She has finished in the money in four out of her five career races, winning one of the starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Charisse – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, earned the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
3 – Moonlit Weekend – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has a trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races he has an entry in.
Longshot:
4 – Ten Ten – She drops in class today she has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races in the 2nd after claiming a horse and blinkers added today.
Alternate:
7 – Karen’s Honor
6 – Toot Your Horn
Race 2
1 – Donegal Momentum – He won his debut race at Aqueduct, receiving a 99-speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Lambeth – He won his last race at Aqueduct; he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.
5 – Khafre – He won his last race at Aqueduct and he has a high % winning Trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Surface to Air – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has a good 4F workout on Jun-22.
Alternate:
3 – Reddington
$.50 Pick 4: #1,6/2,5/3,9,11/1,3,4,5,7,9 – Cost $36.00
Race 3
2 – Mighty Atlas – He has finished in the money in six out of her last seven races, winning the last two starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Shadow Dragon – He finished 3rd in his last race after being bumped at the start, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
6- Dr. Kraft – He has finished in the money in his last six races and he has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
Longshot:
3 – Majestic Frontier – He likes finished second at today’s distance and he switches to a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1 – Cut the Cord
7 – Rocket and Roll
Race 4-Female
11 – Maturity Date – She finished 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in her last race, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races in the 2nd after claiming a horse.
9 – Enigmatic – She ran 4th in her last race at Oaklawn Park; she has been claimed by high % winning trainer Linda Rice and has new jockey in the irons, Jose Lezcano and has a bullet 5f workout on June 14th.
3 – Redo – She has a trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race. and her best turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
8 – Day Away – She ran 2nd (on AW) in her last race and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Bet: $16.00 Win: # 11 – $1.00 DD: 10,11/3,4,5,9
Race 5-Female
5 – Book of Wisdom – She won her last race at Aqueduct; she has the best dirt speed among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Love Like Crazy – She switches to a high % jockey and blinkers added today.
3 – Dashing Della – She drops in class today and has a good 3F workout on Jun-22.
Longshot:
9 – Sun and Wind – She finished 3rd in her last race and is one for one at today’s distance.
Alternate:
1 – Juliana’s Rose
7 – Lady Fortuna
Race 6
6 – Works for Me – He ran 2nd in his last race and switches to a high % jockey.
10 – Excellent Timing – He won his last race at Saratoga; he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Acoustic Ave – He finished 3rd (on Dirt) in last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Fortune’s Nephew – He finished 3rd (on Dirt) in his last race and has a good 4F workout on Jun-19.
$.50 Pick 4: #2,5,6,8,10 /2,3,5,8/9/1,2,3,14,15,16 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
2 – On the Ledge – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Stanley Rough – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
8 – Spoofy– He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race and drops in class today.
Longshot:
5 – Wisecracker – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Braca
Race 8-Female
9 – Peak Popularity – She came in from Ireland to compete in a G3 and finished 6th after being bumped and being crowded, she now drops in class; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.
2 – Hola Gata – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Race 9-Female
1 – Majulu – She is a First-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance, she has a high % winning and trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-21.
15 – Strong Play – She is a First-time starter, she has a high % winning and trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-21.
16 – Inflammabelle – She drops in class today and her Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters (but 0 Turf winners).
Longshot:
3 – Realta – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races the 2nd time he uses Lasix and she has a high % winning jockey.
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 4th Race
11 – Maturity Date
Rich’s Ranks:
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
5 – CHARISSE – any of the last three races will do – the one at 1 mile at AQ does so easily
4 – TEN TEN – not sure about the last race, but the one before that at 1 mile at AQ works – drops
3 – MOONLIT WEEKEND – Trevor on a horse that closes, going long for the 1st time
2 – BLENHEIM BABY – 2nd off the claim for tr Linda Rice 24% – drops after running a little faster
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
1 – DONEGAL MOMENTUM – just rerun debut and he is two and oh
3 – REDDINGTON – if he can get the lead – that’s his best chance – Kendrick will absolutely try
5 – KHAFRE – 3 seconds faster in his last – doesn’t normally go back to back to winners’ circle
6 – LAMBETH – aside from the 1 – maybe has the most upside, 3 yo getting first Lasix
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
6 – DR. KRAFT – left arrow horse, enough LS to finish – should be a good fit for Trevor
2 – MIGHTY ATLAS – runs well at 1 mile at AQ – and has strong LS and not far from the pace here
5 – SHADOW DRAGON – 2nd up record says either the same as last – ITM or big step forward – Win
1 – CUT THE CORD – if Kendrick can get her close to the front, then he has the LS to finish it out
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – OFF – 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
11 – MATURITY DATE – resume says a much better race is coming today in 2nd up
6 – PRINCESS SUMMER – typical 2nd race improvement is enough, slow start in last, but same start versus these and she is in the mix right away
9 – ENIGMATIC – maybe too much ES for these – should get off to an easy lead, fractions will be key
3 – REDO – tough call over the 8, but more lightly raced, more potential?
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: 1-3 Discount, Outside In with 8+ Best
9 – SUN AND WIND – outside post helps, the workouts in May followed by maintenance works – lone trip at the track/distance was by far the best
5 – BOOK OF WISDOM – took 10 races to win, does she go back to back? Linda Rice 21% vs 16% overall
1 – JULIANA’S ROSE – lowest level of her career – quick start is the key
4 – LOVE LIKE CRAZY – putting Manny Franco on tells me they are going to send today – let’s see if the change up in style makes a difference
Race 6: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – OFF: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 50% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Hit Hard, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Best
9 – BREW PUB – going to take a shot at beating the heavily favored 10 – strong works, best work on an off track – last win off the bench
10 – EXCELLENT TIMING – TLRSP#+5, going to dash to the front with Irad now riding
2 – TEN CENT TOWN – another that could upset the FAV – 2nd by a neck at this level last out, will be better in 2nd up, hit 100 on the speed gun, by far his best – in lone muddy trip
5 – ACOUSTIC AVE – definitely been facing the toughest company – won by 9 ¼ lengths the last time he ran in the mud
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 50% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Hit Hard, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Best
2 – ON THE LEDGE – MSW dropper that should be an easy winner on paper – but been off for more than a year – strange that he doesn’t try MSW at least 1 more time – looking to sell
12 – YOU BEAUT – speed and fade in 1st up as 3 yo and 1st Lasix after stopping in 2 yo debut – three solid maintenance works between, more fit
4 – BRACA – early speed and gets first Lasix – upped speed figure in both after debut
3 – STANLEY ROUGH – some improvement at this level last out in 2nd career start
Race 8: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – OFF – 1 1/8 Miles
9 – PEAK POPULARITY – Chad Brown horse dropping from a G2 – probably wins by 100 lengths
2 – ANY PORT – 50/50 race by definition – take whichever is the higher odds – I think she gets the lead
Race 9: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – OFF: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 50% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Hit Hard, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Best
1 – MAJULU – 1st timer – great work in last 4f in 47.4 – Manny Franco will push from the gates
16 – INFLAMMABELLE – gets the lead and maybe never gives it up
15 – STRONG PLAY – another 1st timer with good works, decent breeding and Linda Rice, but she underperforms with 1sters
3 – REALTA – any improvement from her last race would be enough, a trio of maintenance works
