Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
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Del Mar Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Prayer of Jabez – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 25% of the time in claiming races.
6 – I Know Cash Flow – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 8-4-1).
2 – Pure Speight – He won his last race at Gulfstream Park and the trainer wins 66% of the time when dropping a horse off a win.
5 – Finglas Lad – He had trouble last race, has a trainer wins 23% of the races after Claiming a horse and May improve with Blinkers added today.
Alternate:
5 – Finglas Lad
1 – Majestic Wind
Race 2
2 – Ridin’thestormout – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, her trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 4-2-0) and she has a bullet 3F workout on Aug-21.
4 – The Dance Between – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
3 – Bizzy Gal – Her breeding suggests she will like the grass and the trainer wins 31% of the races in a horse’s 2nd career race.
9 – Mi Mimita – Her breeding suggests she will like the grass and her Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters and 2 Turf winners.
Alternate:
11 – Lady Protonico
10 – Queen Verrazano
Race 3
5 – Awesome Pamela – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie), her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-1).
4 – Wicca Wisdom – She won her last race at Gulfstream Park, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
8 – Jewelofakid – She won her last race at Del Mar.
10 – Starship Sky – She finished 3rd in her last race and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
2 – Miss Mensa
3 – Ardis
Race 4
3 – Cowboy Charlie – He won his last race at Del Mar at today’s distance.
6 – Bochombo – He ran 2nd just missing the win at today’s distance on the turf in his last race and has a trainer who wins 21% of the time in the 1s race after claiming a horse.
7 – Beef Winslow – He drops in class today, should improve while returning to a sprint, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 5F workout on Aug-20.
8 – Cobra Jet – He has won three races out of four career starts and has a decent workout on August 20th.
Alternate:
2 – Hijo Galante
4 – Ikigai
Race 5
5 – Super Renee –She drops in class today, has high % winning Jockey Mike Smith, has the highest last race speed rating and the shorter distance should benefit her.
10 – Spooky Lady – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-1-1).
9 – Kitten Calls – She drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 24% of the time when taking a horse from maiden to a maiden claiming race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Ascendancy – She finished in the money in four out of five career races and drops in class today.
Alternate:
3 – Lilac Starlight
7 – Nearest N Dearest
Race 6
9 – Daniel’s Magic – He has won two races in a row, the last one at Del Mar at today’s distance and received the highest last race speed rating (tie).
6 – Inch – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race and received the highest last race speed rating (tie).
5 – Golden Ale – He finished in the money in four out of his last five races, winning the last race and improving his speed rating in each of the races.
1- Fort Bridger – He likes to be in the mix finishing in the money in seven out of nine career starts, winning two.
Alternate:
11 – Commander Khai
2 – My Harbors Dream
Race 7
8 – Dutch Bus – He won his last race at Del Mar, switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (22 8-4-1) and his best dirt speed is close to the Avg winning speed.
2 – Kattath – He has a High % winning trainer who wins 100% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming and switches to a high % winning jockey – He should improve while returning to a sprint.
4 – Micky From Wexford – He has finished in the money in two of three career races, winning one of the starts and has a bullet workout on 19Aug at Del Mar 4f ft :46ª H 1/86.
10 – Moraweth – He drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 25% of the time in the 1st race after claiming a horse and may improve while returning to a sprint.
Alternate:
6 – Tiz the Tale
1 – Wedding Groom
Race 8
8 – Migration – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, has high % winning Jockey Mike Smith who in last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-2) and has the highest last race speed rating – He drops in class today has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
11 – Tisquantum – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his only start, breeding suggests he will like the grass and his dam has 2 winners from 4 starters and 2 Turf winners. – He may improve at the longer distance; Lasix is being added and he has a good 5F workout (Aug-16).
5 – Tuskegee Cat – He drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 22% of the time when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming race and may improve with blinkers added today.
1 – Kazuhiko – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and he has a trainer who wins 24% of the time when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming race.
Alternate:
14 – Naismith
12- Dark Marcus
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 5 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 16 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: 8+ best, 4-7>1-3, both small penalties
3 – PRAYER OF JABEZ – was much better 2/4f pace#s in last, resume says he’ll be better in R2 off the bench
6 – I KNOW CASH FLOW – left arrow horse, has 3 decent works between races, has some back speed, should be better with 2nd Lasix on and goes back to dirt
2 – PURE SPEIGHT – ships in from Gulfstream and dropping off the win, short sprints 5/2-0-2
7 – TWOKIDSFROMDABRONX – has a +EP advantage, left arrow horse, 2 for 2 on a fast track
5 – FINGLAS LAD
1 – MAJESTIC WIND
Race 2 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 23 races, 17 won by speed, 12 won w2w – PP: outside in bias, just 1 from the rail, 2 won from 2/3, 8+ best
2 – RIDIN’THESTORMOUT – not a fan of the inside draws, but bullet and go 3f in 35.1 fastest of 18
1 – META GIRL – rail stinks, August 5 work of 46.3 fastest of 63
8 – BYE BYE BUGGSY – let’s take a shot here, Aug 21 work 47.4 ranked 13/116
10 – SALLY’S SASSY – tough call with the 7, but the works are a little better, jy Ricardo Gonazlez and Tr Jonathan Wong +2.37 ROI in 6 races
7 – HOT THOUGHTS
9 – MI MIMITA
Race 3 – 1 Mile, 21 races, 11 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: outside bias, 1 winner from the rail, 2 from 2/3, 8+ >4-7 and both are above par
5 – AWESOME PAMELA – was better ATB, distance 4/1-1-1, tie TLRSP#, PPs say she’ll be better in race 2 after a layoff
8 – JEWELOFAKID – was better ATB in last, MCL winner, not the biggest fan, maybe better in 2nd off the bench
4 – WICCA WISDOM – comes in from GP, like the Del Mar works, not a fan of MCL winners
10 – STARSHIP SKY – distance 6/1-1-3, has top LP# in the field, ran a little better 6f last out
6 – LADY COMMISH
1 – CRAZY ABOUT YOU
Race 4 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 23 races, 17 won by speed, 12 won w2w – PP: outside in bias, just 1 from the rail, 2 won from 2/3, 8+ best
3 – COWBOY CHARLIE – beat many of these last out, was better at 4f and LP
6 – BOCHOMBO – missed vs the top choice last out as the favorite, was claimed, tr Kristin Mulhall hits at 21% 1st off the claim
7 – BEEF WINSLOW – cuts back in distance, should be right off the pace, dropping in class and strong bullet work since last
4 – IKIGAI – should be better in race 2 off the sidelines, got off to a rough start last out, drop in class to lowest level since MSW win
2 – HIJO GALANTE
8 – COBRA JET
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs, 25 races, 16 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: Outside in again, 8+ by far best, 1-7 under par with the rail the worst
5 – SUPER RENEE – TLRSP#, better fractions last out, should move up a little in R2 off the bench
9 – KITTEN CALLS – has a +LP advantage, did run a little bit faster in his last
10 – SPOOKY LADY – lone PC horse in the field, 1st time MCL for Baffert is 38% winner
2 – SIDE BY SIDE – Left arrow horse, could be the pacesetter, speed #s are as good as any
7 – NEAREST N DEAREST
6 – ASCENDANCY
Race 6 – 5 Furlongs Turf, 23 races, 17 won by speed, 12 won w2w – PP: outside in bias, just 1 from the rail, 2 won from 2/3, 8+ best
9 – DANIEL’S MAGIC – tie TLRSP#, always close at the end, some of the best LP, should be better R2 after a layoff
11 – COMMANDER KHAI (AE) – if he gets in, Del Mar 6/1-2-2, real strong mid move in last
6 – INCH – other to tie TLRSP#, some better fractions in last, top LP in for this bunch
3 – FINALLY HERE – left arrow horse, PC type with EP#s that should put him close to the front, explosive move on the turn in last
8 – MCWHERTER
7 – IT’S MY HOUSE
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs, 25 races, 16 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: Outside in again, 8+ by far best, 1-7 under par with the rail the worst
2 – KATTATH – top LP in a race that could be fast, decent works for first race since September, runs back to his class and it’s EZ win
3 – CHIPPER – distance is right, 3/1-2-0, 10/0-3-1 at any other lengths, much better times last out
8 – DUTCH BUS – left arrow horse, 2nd off a layoff, 24% winner tr Tim Yakteen, not the biggest fan of MCL risers
1 – WEDDING GROOM – not a fan of the rail, tough call over the 7, considerably better ATB in first off the sidelines, expecting improvement in round 2
7 – CEES GET DEGREES
4 – MICKY FROM WEXFORD
Race 8 – 1 Mile Turf, 41 races, 28 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: mostly fair ATB
14 – NAISMITH (AE) – if he gets in, tr Richard Madella hits 40% MCL, should be top form 3rd off the break
8 – MIGRATION – EP horse, MSW dropper, TLRSP, Madella again 33% 1st time MCL
11 – TISQUANTUM – has a ++ LP edge over the rest, been off for more than a year, 1st Lasix, was bet OK in lone start
1 – KAZUHIKO – left arrow horse that should be close to the pace and has some of the best LP#s
6 – BIRTH OF COOL
12 – DARK MARCUS
Del Mar Pace Worksheet
